Oscar Predix #1 -- The Long & The Short Of It

Hello again, everybody!  Sorry I haven't written in a while, but things in my life are quite hectic at the moment.  I have a little bit of time right now so I thought I'd get a head start on my Oscar predictions, rather that doing it all in one fell swoop towards the end of February (which, let's face it, would be night on impossible as we're moving at that exact time).  

I'm doing something different as well this year, as I'm including EVERY category.  In the past, I've focused on the top eight (picture, director, acting and writing), as well as the music, cinematography, production design, costumes & makeup, visual effects, both sound awards, and editing.  Eighteen, in total.  Now I'm including the other seven awards in my predictions.  It may make my average better or may bring it down, but I thought I'd give it a shot.  It's also a little bit of a stall tactic, as I've only made it to three of the best picture nominees so far (Captain Phillips, Wolf Of Wall Street and Her).  Hopefully in the next couple of weeks I'll get to at least a couple more nominees so I can at least pretend to seem to know what I'm talking about, and we'll go from there.  But for now, I give you:  THE BATHROOM BREAK AWARDS!!!

First off is Best Documentary Feature.  Here are the nominees, with the descriptions taken from the Academy Awards website and a link to the theatrical trailer if available:

• The Act Of Killing:  In the wake of the deaths of nearly a million opponents of Indonesia's political regime, the heads of the country's death squads are celebrated as heroes. Challenged to examine their actions by creating films about the killings, the men produce elaborately staged movies that reenact the mass slayings.
•  Cutie And The Boxer:  The 40-year marriage of painter Ushio Shinohara, known for his boxing paintings, and his wife, Noriko, who gave up her own career as an artist to focus on her husband, has become the subject of a series of comic strips drawn by Noriko. As the 80-year-old Ushio finds his own artistic reputation fading, Noriko's fame continues to grow.
• Dirty Wars:  One of the least-known components in the war on terror, the Joint Special Operations Command conducts its work in secret and seemingly without limitations. With no existing record of their actions or personnel, the JSOC carries out strikes against those deemed a threat to U.S. security while remaining entirely outside the scope of public knowledge.
• The Square:  The events that have shaken Egypt since 2011 have taken the country from a revolution aimed at ending political oppression to the overthrow of the new president, a member of the Muslim Brotherhood. At the center of the story is Cairo's Tahrir Square, the gathering place for protesters and the site of many of the period’s most dramatic moments.
• 20 Feet From Stardom:  Background singers heard on many of the 20th century's greatest songs have made a crucial contribution to the world of pop music while remaining unknown to listeners. The singers take center stage for an in-depth look at their role as supporting figures in the complex process involved in creating the finished recordings.

All of these films seem quite impressive upon first glance.  This is a category that often goes to something dealing with social or political issues.  But there are three films here that deal with war and/or revolution, so they may very well cancel each other out.  Cutie And The Boxer looks cute, but I have a hunch that this year's documentary feature award will go to 20 Feet From Stardom.  It's basically a love letter to those who ply their craft as background performers, who keep on chooglin' while others get the recognition.  It's easy to see why the technicians and tradespeople in the Academy would vote for this, and of course for performers, Stardom is something that may touch close to home.  Although they all seem to be quality films, look for the one about showbiz to take home the top prize on Oscar night.

Moving on, we next have Best Documentary Short Subject.   

• Cavedigger:  New Mexico environmental sculptor Ra Paulette carves elaborately designed and painstakingly executed sandstone caves, driven by an artistic vision that often brings him into conflict with his patrons.
• Facing Fear:  As a gay 13-year-old, Matthew Boger endured a savage beating at the hands of a group of neo-Nazis. Twenty-five years later, he meets one of them again by chance.
• Karama Has No Walls:  When protesters in Yemen added their voices to those of other nations during the Arab Spring, the government responded with an attack that left 53 people dead and inspired widespread sympathy throughout the country.
• The Lady In Number 6: Music Saved My Life:  At 109, Alice Herz Sommer is the world's oldest pianist…and its oldest Holocaust survivor. At the heart of her remarkable story of courage and endurance is her passion for music.
• Prison Terminal: The Last Days Of Private Jack Hall:  In a maximum security prison, the terminally ill Jack Hall faces his final days with the assistance of hospice care provided by workers drawn from the prison population.

This is an eclectic group, to say the least.  I'm thinking the Academy will memorialize The Lady In Number 6.  It's the heavyweight of the bunch, its director, Malcolm Clarke, having already won an Oscar.  Not only that, it seems right up the Academy's alley, covering both performance arts and the Holocaust (both always strong documentary bets on Oscar night).  To me, Facing Fear seems the most interesting, although I can't see the Academy leaning that way ... and don't count out Karama Has No Walls either, as it could potentially get the "war documentary" vote if 20 Feet From Stardom wins best feature doc.  But feel free to put your money on The Lady In Number 6 -- I'm fairly certain this one's a winner.

Keeping things short, next we have Best Short Film (Animated).

• Feral:  A wild boy who has grown up in the woods is found by a hunter and returned to civilization.
• Get A Horse!:  Mickey Mouse and his friends are enjoying a wagon ride until Peg-Leg Pete shows up with plans to ruin their day.
• Mr. Hublot (trailer #1; trailer #2):  The eccentric, isolated Mr. Hublot finds his carefully ordered world disrupted by the arrival of Robot Pet.
• Possessions:  A man seeking shelter from a storm in a dilapidated shrine encounters a series of household objects inhabited by goblin spirits.
• Room On The Broom:  A genial witch and her cat are joined on their broom by several friends as they set off on an adventure.

First off, I couldn't find the trailer for Possessions anywhere.  And Hublot has two trailers because they're both 20 seconds long and I couldn't decide which one to show.  I think it's a given that this one's going to Get A Horse!  Walt Disney himself voices Mickey -- FROM BEYOND THE GRAVE!!!!  No, actually, it's just archival voice material he recorded 84 years ago.  But the film itself starts off as a circa-Steamboat Willie type thing, with 1920s style scratch animation, and then completely throws you for a loop.  And that's all I'm saying!!!  But make no mistake, Get A Horse! will ride to the podium on March 2nd.

Last on the docket:  Best Short Film (Live Action).

• Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn't Me):  Paula, a Spanish aid worker, has an encounter with an African child soldier named Kaney.
• Avant Que De Tout Perdre (Just Before Losing Everything):  Miriam has left her abusive husband and taken refuge with her children in the local supermarket where she works.
• Helium:  A dying boy finds comfort in the tales of a magical land called HELIUM, told to him by the hospital janitor.
•  Pitääkö Mun Kaikki Hoitaa? (Do I Have To Take Care Of Everything?):  Sini tries frantically to get her family ready to leave for a wedding, but her husband and two children are interfering with her efforts.
• The Voorman Problem:  A psychiatrist is called to a prison to examine an inmate named Voorman, who is convinced he is a god.

Take your pick with this category.  I have no clue what's going to happen here.  The Voorman Problem is the only one with recognizable actors: The Hobbit and Sherlock's Martin Freeman, and Tom Hollander (Pirates Of The Caribbean series).  It's also the only one in English.  That gives it a leg up on the competition.  However, Anders Walter, who directed Helium, is a five-time nominee, and won for Election Night (Valgaften) in 1998.  It also -- to me, anyways -- looks like the most interesting one.  And Aquel No Era Yo looks very well-made too -- it could potentially sneak in there.  But as I have to choose only one, and I figure it will be one of these two, I'm going with Helium.  It just piques my interest a little more than the others.

Well, there you have it.  The beginnings of my predictions for this year's Oscar awards.  Next time around, Best Animated Feature and Best Foreign Film.  Stay tuned ...