Apologies / Rushed Oscar Picks

Well, it seems I didn't have nearly the amount of time I thought I had, so my goal of an in-depth analysis of all the Oscar nominees has to fall by the wayside in favor of more pressing real life events.  In a way it's a good thing, as I've only seen five of the nine best picture nominees -- I have been holding back my writing in order to hopefully get a chance to see more but, alas, 'twas not to be.  So without further ado, a quick rundown of the rest of my picks -- who I think will win, and who I want to win.

BEST PICTURE
12 Years A Slave.  I know Gravity and American Hustle have a lot of heat, but 12 Years just screams out "OSCAR!!!" any which way you look at it.  It's a period piece history lesson that Oscar always seems to latch on to.  Now as mentioned previously, I've only seen five of the nominees:  American Hustle, Captain Phillips, Gravity, Her, and The Wolf Of Wall Street.  My favorite of all of these was Wolf, but it doesn't stand a chance in hell of winning.  No, this one is going to 12 Years -- although I think this is one of those years where picture and director will split the vote (which seems to be happening more and more often these days).  Because ...

BEST DIRECTOR
Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity.  Usually picture and director are one and the same.  This year, though, Cuarón's work on the project has been so universally recognized for his technological aptitude that I can't see anyone else getting this prize for.  If there's a category for Safest Oscar Prediction this year, this is it.

BEST ACTOR
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club.  I love Leo.  He's always been a terribly underrated performer, and even though he already has a not-too-shabby four nominations, he could easily have twice that in my opinion.  He would be getting my vote for best actor, just for the Quaaludes scene alone!  Now I haven't seen McConaughey's film, and apparently he's fantastic.  So fantastic that he's another pretty much sure thing.  Some people are mentioning Bruce Dern as a kind of career award, but I've noticed that people who get career awards most often get them in the supporting categories (unless you're Paul Newman).  Can't see that happening here.  McConaughey will start the Dallas Oscars Club right here.

BEST ACTRESS
Amy Adams, American Hustle.  This one seemed at one point to be heading Cate Blanchett's way, but her buzz seems to have cooled off a bit.  That being said, I think hers is a fantastic performance.  I would not be disappointed if she won it.  Streep and Dench are pretty much bystanders in this race, and I can picture Bullock winning out only if Gravity pulls a Titanic and sweeps pretty much everything it's nominated for.  I'm going out on a limb here, but I'm going to predict Amy Adams to win for American Hustle.  It's not her best performance ever, or even this year (her role in Her was phenomenal in its understatedness), but this is her fifth nomination in nine years (and her first leading actress nod).  What's impressive is that none of the other nominated performances (for Junebug, Doubt, The Fighter and The Master) are similar -- no going back into her bag of tricks.  And when you throw in stuff like Enchanted, let's face it, the girl has range and talent up the wazoo.  So yes, I'm predicting Amy Adams to win best actress this year.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club.  Just going to go on record here:  Michael Fassbender is AWESOME!!!  That being said, I have still not seen 12 Years A Slave, so I can't comment on his performance.  But if he won, I would do a jig.  Just saying.  As for the race itself, Leto will join McConaughey in the Dallas Oscars Club.  Actually, since supporting awards are always rattled off before the leads, perhaps it should be the other way around.  Either way, both men are walking out of the venue with little gold men in their pockets.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Lupito Nyong'o, 12 Years A Slave.  I know, I know.  Everybody's talking about Jennifer Lawrence doing the back-to-back thing.  She's a great actress, and I'd love to see her get up on stage and start babbling because quite frankly, she's one of the coolest and most refreshing people Hollywood has at the moment.  But this award is always one of the big shockers of the evening.  I think it's because it's almost always the first award given, and because the Oscars start after 8:30 and don't finish until 'round midnight, a little bit of glamour and/or controversy to start the show always helps.  So often this award is given to someone who, in a bit of an upset, comes out of nowhere to win.  1992:  Marisa Tomei (My Cousin Vinny) beats out Judy Davis, Joan Plowright, Vanessa Redgrave AND Miranda Richardson.  1996:  Juliette Binoche (The English Patient) beats out huge favorite Lauren Bacall.  2000:  Marcia Gay Harden (Pollock) beats out Judi Dench and Frances McDormand.  Then there are the ones who are pretty much new to acting:  Anna Paquin, Jennifer Hudson, Octavia Spencer.  What I'm leading to is that Lupita Nyong'o is going to win here, Lawrence and all her awesomeness be damned.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Spike Jonze, Her.  Oscar loves spreading the wealth lately, and this is pretty much the only shot Her has at winning.  Plus, you have to admit, it's original!  (screenplay attached in link)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
John Ridley, 12 Years A Slave.  Speaking of spreading the wealth, there are three other best picture nominees in this category.  None of which will win.  Next.


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Steven Price, Gravity.  See comments from February 1st for in-depth analysis.


BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"Ordinary Love" from Mandela: Long Walk To Freedom.  I know, here I am singing "Let It Go" in my sleep and still I pick this one.  Same as best score, see February 1st comments for more.


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Emmanuel Lubezki, Gravity.  Once you realize what Lubezki and Cuarón achieved, you'll understand why this is a no-brainer.  Roger Deakins will have to wait for his 12th nomination for another shot at winning.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Catherine Martin (art direction) & Beverley Dunn (set decoration), The Great Gatsby.  Say what you will about the much-maligned Gatsby, it was certainly a feast for the eyes.  You could see 12 Years A Slave get the Lincoln-ish "didn't see that one coming" toss-off here, but I'm pretty sure this award will go to Jimmy Gatz.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Catherine Martin, The Great Gatsby.  Ditto.

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Adruitha Lee & Robin Mathews, Dallas Buyers Club.  This one SHOULD go to Stephen Prouty for Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa, but this is another category in which if there's a best picture nominee, it WILL go to that film, regardless of whether or not it should.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Tim Webber, Chris Lawrence, David Shirk & Neil Corbould, Gravity.  Smaug is fantastic, but this is Gravity's year in all the technical categories, so for the next few categories, you will indulge me, please, if I am a bit brief ...

BEST SOUND EDITING
Glenn Freemantle, Gravity.  

BEST SOUND MIXING
Skip Lievsay, Niv Adiri, Christopher Benstead & Chris Munro, Gravity.  I actually thought Captain Phillips' sound mix was really good, and if it wins ANY awards, it will be one of the sound ones.  But it won't.

BEST FILM EDITING
Alfonso Cuarón & Mark Sanger, Gravity.

So there you have it.  All the other awards:  animated feature, foreign language film, and all the documentaries and short films, I've already written about.  But let's tally up the results for my predictions.

Gravity -- 7 awards (out of 10 nominations)
12 Years A Slave -- 3 awards (out of 9 nominations)
Dallas Buyers Club -- 3 awards (out of 6 nominations)
The Great Gatsby -- 2 awards (out of 2 nominations)
American Hustle -- 1 award (out of 10 nominations)
Her -- 1 award (out of 5 nominations)
Mandela: Long Walk To Freedom -- 1 award (out of 1 nomination)

Captain Phillips and Nebraska (6 nominations each), The Wolf Of Wall Street (5 nominations) and Philomena (4 nominations) will all go home empty-handed.  

Enjoy the Oscars, everybody!

Oscar Predix #2 -- Scribbling Incomprehensibly In Tune

So here we are again, with part two of my Oscar predictions.  This time I'll be focusing on four more categories:  best animated feature film, best foreign language film, and the two music categories, best original score and best original song.  A little controversy when it comes to the latter, but more on that later.  I know it's only a couple of days after the first posting, but seeing as for the most part the best picture nominees are absent from these categories, it was a safe bet I won't be seeing any more of them in the limited time I have left before Oscar time.  So without further ado, our four categories for this evening (again, with a link to the trailer, and the description from Oscar's web site.

Best Animated Feature Film

• The Croods (Kirk De Micco & Chris Sanders, directors):  The Crood family lives in a prehistoric world filled with dangerous animals and unsettling changes. When they encounter a young man named Guy (Ryan Reynolds), a member of a more evolved group of humans, only teenage daughter Eep (Emma Stone) is willing to listen to his warnings that the world as they know it is ending and the Croods will need to alter their way of living if they are to survive.
• Despicable Me 2 (Pierre Coffin & Chris Renaud, directors):  With the formerly villainous Gru (Steve Carell) now a doting father to his three adopted daughters, the talents he once employed for evil are largely wasted in his new role as a jam and jelly maker. When he is approached by Lucy Wilde (Kristen Wiig), a secret agent from the Anti-Villain League, Gru finds not only a new focus for his abilities but a possible romantic interest as well.
• Ernest & Celestine (Stéphane Aubier, Vincent Patar & Benjamin Renner, directors): 
  Beneath a village inhabited by bears lies a subterranean community of mice who steal from their ursine neighbors and particularly value their teeth. When Celestine (Pauline Brunner), an orphaned mouse studying dentistry but dreaming of art, meets a sensitive, talented bear named Ernest (Lambert Wilson), the interests they share lead to a bond between them that challenges the traditional enmity between their species.
• Frozen (Chris Buck & Jennifer Lee, directors):  Sisters Elsa (Idina Menzel) and Anna (Kristen Bell) enjoy an idyllic life in the enchanted kingdom ruled by their parents until Elsa's magical ability to create ice and snow around her proves a threat to those she loves. Emerging for her own coronation after several years of self-imposed isolation, Elsa flees her home in distress when her uncontrollable powers transform the kingdom into a frozen realm.
• The Wind Rises (Hayao Miyazaki, director):  As a boy, Jiro Horikoshi (Joseph Gordon-Levitt) dreams of someday building the planes that his poor eyesight will never allow him to fly. After training as an engineer, Jiro puts his talents to work for Mitsubishi and becomes a leading innovator in aviation design, while Japan moves through the turbulent events of the 1920s and '30s that will carry it closer to the Second World War.

It seems that every year in this category, the Academy chooses to nominate -- along with the usual obligatory box-office hits -- a couple of left-field films, usually smaller films from other countries which are more often than not animated in the traditional style.  Think A Cat In Paris, Chico & Rita, The Illusionist, The Secret Of Kells, Persepolis and The Triplets Of Belleville, just to name a few.  This year we have three blockbusters (The Croods, Despicable Me 2 -- whose predecessor was not even nominated in this category in 2010, even though there were only three nominees -- and Frozen) along with the "underdogs" as I like to call them (Ernest & Celestine and The Wind Rises).  Common sense would have it that this award should go to Frozen -- setting box office records everywhere, it has become the most popular Disney animated movie ever, passing Finding Nemo and The Lion King in worldwide box office sales (not adjusted for inflation, mind you).  However, never one to stray from the norm, I shall suggest an alternative for you:  The Wind Rises.  What's this, you say?  A traditionally animated film winning best animated feature?  It's only happened once in the twelve years of the category's existence -- in 2002 with Miyazaki's own Spirited Away.  Every other time, a CG animated film has taken the top prize.  But keep this in mind:  Miyazaki is revered by many in the animation industry, and The Wind Rises is his swan song -- and a very personal film for him, to boot.  While Frozen is more than likely going to be the winner, I am going to stray a little out of the comfort zone and predict The Wind Rises to glide to the podium in a startling (to casual observers) upset.  

Best Foreign Language Film

• The Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium; Felix Van Groeningen, director):  As bluegrass performer Didier (Johan Heldenbergh) and his girlfriend Elise (Veerle Baetens) face a family tragedy, the history of their relationship in its early days is revisited. Reluctant at first to let adult responsibilities alter the carefree nature of their lives, Didier and Elise learn that love can sometimes bring both intense joy and great sorrow.
• The Great Beauty (Italy; Paolo Sorrentino, director):  Jep Gambardella (Toni Servillo) is a well-known journalist whose success has placed him at the center of Rome's decadent social world. But Jep is also the author of an acclaimed novel, written years ago, and he remains haunted by the career he failed to pursue when he chose the seductive ease of his current life.
• The Hunt (Denmark; Thomas Vinterberg, director):  The devastating effects of false accusations of child molestation play out in the life of an innocent kindergarten teacher. Lucas's (Mads Mikkelsen) rapport with the children in his class has led one little girl, Klara (Annika Wedderkopp), to develop a crush on him, but her embarrassment when her feelings are revealed leads her to claim that he exposed himself.
• The Missing Picture (Cambodia; Rithy Panh, director):  Few images exist of the brutality unleashed on Cambodia by Pol Pot and the Khmer Rouge following the Kampuchean Revolution in 1975. Using clay figures to stand in for himself, his family and the many Cambodians whose lives were destroyed during the years that followed, Rithy Panh recreates a dark and bloody period in his country's history.
• Omar (Palestine; Hany Abu-Assad, director):  When a trio of young Palestinians decides to kill an Israeli soldier, one of them, a baker named Omar (Adam Bakri), is arrested and beaten by Israeli intelligence agents. Told that he will be given his freedom if he assists in capturing the man they believe to be the shooter, Omar rejoins his friends and begins to suspect that there is an informant among them.

 The foreign language film category is always a crapshoot.  In 2009, everyone thought Michael Haneke's The White Ribbon was a shoo-in to win; we were all blindsided when The Secret In Their Eyes from Argentina won.  Same thing happened three years earlier, when Guillermo Del Toro's Pan's Labyrinth, which had already won three Oscars in the competitive categories and had been nominated for six in total, lost to The Lives Of Others from Germany (which, admittedly, was an amazing movie).  In 2004, the Hitler biography Downfall (from which so many YouTube parodies were born) was passed over in favor of The Sea Inside.  In 2001 the much-beloved five-time Oscar nominee Amélie was beaten by No Man's Land (which, if you haven't seen it, you owe it to yourself to search it out and discover it.  Brilliant, brilliant film).  And that's just what's happened in this young century.  Simply put, you never know what's going to happen here.  If I was to lay odds on this category, the front-runner would probably be The Hunt, followed closely by The Great Beauty and Broken Circle Breakdown.  The Missing Picture and Omar most probably won't factor into the equation here, although they both look interesting.  I'm not really interested in either Broken Circle Breakdown or The Great Beauty, but The Hunt looks fantastic.  So based solely on what looks interesting to me and what I think actually stands a chance of winning, I'm going with The Hunt on this occasion.  Besides, Denmark's done quite well at the Oscars over the past 10 years (four nominations, one win), so add that to my list of reasons.

Best Original Score

• William Butler & Owen Pallett, Her.  Sound clip:  "Photograph"
• Alexandre Desplat, Philomena.  Sound clip:  "Philomena"
• Thomas Newman, Saving Mr. Banks.  Sound clip:  "Saving Mr. Banks (End Title)"
• Steven Price, Gravity.  Sound clip:  "Gravity"
• John Williams, The Book Thief.  Sound clip:  "The Book Thief"

Of all these scores, John Williams' music for The Book Thief is far and away my favorite of them all.  Will he win?  It's possible.  He's much beloved by the Academy.  His work here, along with Steven Price's for Gravity, are the only two that scored both Golden Globe and Oscar nominations.  And although he's been nominated 49 times (taking the golden boy home an Olympic-sized FIVE times!!!), he hasn't actually won since Schindler's List 20 years ago.  It's possible the Academy may decide recognition is due once again.  But let's take a look at the other nominees, shall we?  Thomas Newman has been nominated for the 12th time for Saving Mr. Banks, and has yet to win.  Will this finally be his chance at Oscar glory?  I highly doubt it.  It seems to be a nice score, yet there has been an incredible backlash against his movie over the past couple of months.  Then there's Alexandre Desplat for Philomena.  I quite enjoyed what I've heard of his score; he's had six nominations since 2006, and yet hasn't won.  He could possibly be a contender, especially with the Weinsteins backing him; they probably know Philomena hasn't a chance in hell of winning best picture, and it doesn't look like Judi Dench has enough steam to take over the best actress slot, so, as Oscar seems to like spreading the love in recent years, this may very well be their best chance to honor the film.  Steven Price is a first-time nominee for Gravity.  His only other feature film credits as composer are The World's End and Attack The Block.  But while his experience may not be John Williams-esque, it's impossible to deny that Gravity would have been anywhere near the success it was without his atmospheric music backing it up.  And then there's Her, which is scored by Canadian group Arcade Fire (well, by one of its members, William Butler, and an associate, Owen Pallett; it's performed by Arcade Fire). It's a wispy score, nice to listen to but not too memorable.  I don't think it'll get any recognition in this category, as Spike Jonze pretty much has Best Original Screenplay locked up IMHO.  

So this leaves us with three viable candidates:  Desplat, Price and Williams.  Even with the Weinsteins behind him, I just don't see Desplat winning this year.  Price seems to be the odds on favorite here, and Oscar has been known to give the award to relative newcomers (Ludovic Bource, Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross, AR Rahman, and Gustavo Santaolalla, anyone?).  And while his score suffers in comparison to Williams' when it comes to just sitting there and listening to the soundtrack, as I mentioned before his score is not just a score, it's the soundscape for the whole film.  So as much as it saddens me to say this, I don't think John Williams will take home his sixth Oscar this year.  I'd LOVE it if he does (and if you haven't read the book The Book Thief, please do -- it's amazing).  But I think Price's work here is just too much a part of his film's success to overlook here.  Steve Price for Gravity it is, then.

Best Original Song

• "Happy" from Despicable Me 2.  Music & lyrics by Pharrell Williams.  Performed by Pharrell Williams.
• "Let It Go" from Frozen.  Music & lyrics by Kristen Anderson-Lopez & Robert Lopez.  Performed by Idina Menzel.
• "The Moon Song" from Her.  Music by Karen O; lyrics by Karen O & Spike Jonze.  Performed by Karen O.
• "Ordinary Love" from Mandela: Long Walk To Freedom.  Music by Paul Hewson, Dave Evans, Adam Clayton & Larry Mullen; lyrics by Paul Hewson.  Performed by U2.

I know what you're thinking.  "Damn, that Matt Easterbrook's a good-looking guy!"  Correct!  And that's not all.  You're also thinking, "Wait a minute; aren't there usually five nominees in this category?"  Right you are!  There WERE originally five nominees in this category.  The fifth nominee was to have been the title song from the movie Alone Yet Not Alone.  Quite frankly, the movie looked like a steaming pile of monkey dung, and the song wasn't much better.  It beat out "Atlas" by Coldplay, "Sweeter Than Fiction" by Taylor Swift and "Young And Beautiful" by Lana Del Rey, among others.  And therein lay the controversy.  You see, "Alone Yet Not Alone" was written by Bruce Broughton and Dennis Spiegel.  Broughton was a former Academy governor, who apparently e-mailed voters in the musicians' branch as a sort of grass-roots campaign.  The Academy, after a couple of weeks of the controversy, decided to disqualify the song from nomination; in their own words, Broughton's actions were "inconsistent with the Academy's promotional regulations".

This is the part I really have an issue with (please indulge me while I hop onto my soapbox).  Apparently it's okay for the studios to spend millions of dollars in the trade magazines plastering "For Your Consideration" advertisements all over the pages, and yet one man (who just happened to have a few contacts in the industry) writes a song for a small, overlooked-by-the-studios Christian film, e-mails a few people to let them know the song exists, and now HE'S the one getting vilified???  What kind of bullshit is that?  Don't get me wrong, the song made me vomit, and I would quite frankly rather spend two hours getting a wasabi enema than even consider watching said movie.  But to disqualify Broughton and Spiegel from their nomination simply because they didn't have a $15 million awards budget and had to go basically door-to-door as it were soliciting votes makes me sick.  It's like your local Green Party candidate.  You know his party doesn't have any real national support, and you know he's not going to win, but you don't kick him off the ballot just because he doesn't have a staff of 250 people working 24/7 cold-calling everyone in the riding.  The Academy has revealed themselves once and for all as a bunch of hypocritical pussies and money-grabbers (I know, everyone knows it's all a bunch of hokum anyway).  I highly doubt they'll re-instate "Alone Yet Not Alone," but if they do eat the crow they've been feeding everybody else, I'll be the happiest guy in filmdom.  And then I'll proceed to tear another strip off of that god-awful, fetid song.

Moving on!  The soapbox is packed up and stowed away, and it's time to focus on the remaining four nominees.  The only song of the remaining four I didn't care for is "The Moon Song" ... again, too wispy for my liking.  "Happy" was very cute, but I don't think it stands a chance at winning here.  No, the two heavyweight contenders in this category are "Let It Go" and "Ordinary Love."  News flash:  I love Disney.  I love musicals.  I love Broadway songs and singers.  So I don't think it will surprise you when I say that my favorite of all these songs is "Let It Go."  I hear that song and it just lifts me.  When Idina Menzel changes key towards the end and sings the last verse of the song, I can feel my heart soaring along with the song.  The animation is superb as well, but I'll admit, I'm hearing this song in my head probably every day.  From what I hear, many other people are as well.  Chances are within five years Frozen will be a hit Broadway show.  It would only make sense that such a beloved song should win the top prize in its category at the Oscars, right?

COME ON, PEOPLE!!!  This is the Academy we're talking about!!!  Why listen to the hopes and prayers of millions and millions of unadulterated, screaming fans when you can make a political statement that will be forgotten in five months?  Nope, the Oscar this year will go to U2 for "Ordinary Love."  Now to be perfectly honest, I really like "Ordinary Love" -- I think it's one of the catchiest and most memorable things U2 have put out in the past 10 years or so.  But that's not the reason it will win Best Song at this year's Oscars.  Here are your reasons.  

1. U2 is The Biggest Band In The World.  
2. Bono is a noted humanitarian and has won all sorts of awards and prizes.  He's been nominated for a Nobel, won Time Magazine's Person of the Year, the NAACP's Image Award and been knighted by Queen Elizabeth II (does this make him Sir Bono?)  Damn, says the Academy, we're late to the party once again.  Better make up for it here.  
3. It's the Academy's chance to honor the late, great Nelson Mandela.  Has nothing to do with the song.  Really, it has nothing to do with Mandela when it comes right down to it.  Quite simply, it's all about How It Makes The Academy Look.  And if it makes the Academy look like they're paying tribute to a great man, in that direction the vote will go.

Final score:  "Ordinary Love" 1, "Let It Go" 0.  Also:  "Corporate Palm-Greasing" 1, "Any Semblance Of Sportsmanship" 0.

That's all for now.  See you next time!