Hello again, everybody! Sorry I haven't written in a while, but things in my life are quite hectic at the moment. I have a little bit of time right now so I thought I'd get a head start on my Oscar predictions, rather that doing it all in one fell swoop towards the end of February (which, let's face it, would be night on impossible as we're moving at that exact time).
I'm doing something different as well this year, as I'm including EVERY category. In the past, I've focused on the top eight (picture, director, acting and writing), as well as the music, cinematography, production design, costumes & makeup, visual effects, both sound awards, and editing. Eighteen, in total. Now I'm including the other seven awards in my predictions. It may make my average better or may bring it down, but I thought I'd give it a shot. It's also a little bit of a stall tactic, as I've only made it to three of the best picture nominees so far (Captain Phillips, Wolf Of Wall Street and Her). Hopefully in the next couple of weeks I'll get to at least a couple more nominees so I can at least pretend to seem to know what I'm talking about, and we'll go from there. But for now, I give you: THE BATHROOM BREAK AWARDS!!!
First off is Best Documentary Feature. Here are the nominees, with the descriptions taken from the Academy Awards website and a link to the theatrical trailer if available:
- The Act Of Killing: In the wake of the deaths of nearly a million opponents of Indonesia's
political regime, the heads of the country's death squads are celebrated
as heroes. Challenged to examine their actions by creating films about
the killings, the men produce elaborately staged movies that reenact the
mass slayings.
- Cutie And The Boxer: The 40-year marriage of painter Ushio Shinohara, known for his boxing
paintings, and his wife, Noriko, who gave up her own career as an artist
to focus on her husband, has become the subject of a series of comic
strips drawn by Noriko. As the 80-year-old Ushio finds his own artistic
reputation fading, Noriko's fame continues to grow.
- Dirty Wars: One of the least-known components in the war on terror, the Joint
Special Operations Command conducts its work in secret and seemingly
without limitations. With no existing record of their actions or
personnel, the JSOC carries out strikes against those deemed a threat to
U.S. security while remaining entirely outside the scope of public
knowledge.
- The Square: The events that have shaken Egypt since 2011 have taken the country from
a revolution aimed at ending political oppression to the overthrow of
the new president, a member of the Muslim Brotherhood. At the center of
the story is Cairo's Tahrir Square, the gathering place for protesters
and the site of many of the period’s most dramatic moments.
- 20 Feet From Stardom: Background singers heard on many of the 20th century's greatest songs
have made a crucial contribution to the world of pop music while
remaining unknown to listeners. The singers take center stage for an
in-depth look at their role as supporting figures in the complex process
involved in creating the finished recordings.
All of these films seem quite impressive upon first glance. This is a category that often goes to something dealing with social or political issues. But there are three films here that deal with war and/or revolution, so they may very well cancel each other out. Cutie And The Boxer looks cute, but I have a hunch that this year's documentary feature award will go to 20 Feet From Stardom. It's basically a love letter to those who ply their craft as background performers, who keep on chooglin' while others get the recognition. It's easy to see why the technicians and tradespeople in the Academy would vote for this, and of course for performers, Stardom is something that may touch close to home. Although they all seem to be quality films, look for the one about showbiz to take home the top prize on Oscar night.
Moving on, we next have Best Documentary Short Subject.
- Cavedigger: New Mexico environmental sculptor Ra Paulette carves elaborately
designed and painstakingly executed sandstone caves, driven by an
artistic vision that often brings him into conflict with his patrons.
- Facing Fear: As a gay 13-year-old, Matthew Boger endured a savage beating at the
hands of a group of neo-Nazis. Twenty-five years later, he meets one of
them again by chance.
- Karama Has No Walls: When protesters in Yemen added their voices to those of other nations
during the Arab Spring, the government responded with an attack that
left 53 people dead and inspired widespread sympathy throughout the
country.
- The Lady In Number 6: Music Saved My Life: At 109, Alice Herz Sommer is the world's oldest pianist…and its oldest
Holocaust survivor. At the heart of her remarkable story of courage and
endurance is her passion for music.
- Prison Terminal: The Last Days Of Private Jack Hall: In a maximum security prison, the terminally ill Jack Hall faces his
final days with the assistance of hospice care provided by workers drawn
from the prison population.
This is an eclectic group, to say the least. I'm thinking the Academy will memorialize The Lady In Number 6. It's the heavyweight of the bunch, its director, Malcolm Clarke, having already won an Oscar. Not only that, it seems right up the Academy's alley, covering both performance arts and the Holocaust (both always strong documentary bets on Oscar night). To me, Facing Fear seems the most interesting, although I can't see the Academy leaning that way ... and don't count out Karama Has No Walls either, as it could potentially get the "war documentary" vote if 20 Feet From Stardom wins best feature doc. But feel free to put your money on The Lady In Number 6 -- I'm fairly certain this one's a winner.
Keeping things short, next we have Best Short Film (Animated).
- Feral: A wild boy who has grown up in the woods is found by a hunter and returned to civilization.
- Get A Horse!: Mickey Mouse and his friends are enjoying a wagon ride until Peg-Leg Pete shows up with plans to ruin their day.
- Mr. Hublot (trailer #1; trailer #2): The eccentric, isolated Mr. Hublot finds his carefully ordered world disrupted by the arrival of Robot Pet.
- Possessions: A man seeking shelter from a storm in a dilapidated shrine encounters a series of household objects inhabited by goblin spirits.
- Room On The Broom: A genial witch and her cat are joined on their broom by several friends as they set off on an adventure.
First off, I couldn't find the trailer for Possessions anywhere. And Hublot has two trailers because they're both 20 seconds long and I couldn't decide which one to show. I think it's a given that this one's going to Get A Horse! Walt Disney himself voices Mickey -- FROM BEYOND THE GRAVE!!!! No, actually, it's just archival voice material he recorded 84 years ago. But the film itself starts off as a circa-Steamboat Willie type thing, with 1920s style scratch animation, and then completely throws you for a loop. And that's all I'm saying!!! But make no mistake, Get A Horse! will ride to the podium on March 2nd.
Last on the docket: Best Short Film (Live Action).
- Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn't Me): Paula, a Spanish aid worker, has an encounter with an African child soldier named Kaney.
- Avant Que De Tout Perdre (Just Before Losing Everything): Miriam has left her abusive husband and taken refuge with her children in the local supermarket where she works.
- Helium: A dying boy finds comfort in the tales of a magical land called HELIUM, told to him by the hospital janitor.
- Sini tries frantically to get her family ready to leave for a wedding,
but her husband and two children are interfering with her efforts.
- The Voorman Problem: A psychiatrist is called to a prison to examine an inmate named Voorman, who is convinced he is a god.
Take your pick with this category. I have no clue what's going to happen here. The Voorman Problem is the only one with recognizable actors: The Hobbit and Sherlock's Martin Freeman, and Tom Hollander (Pirates Of The Caribbean series). It's also the only one in English. That gives it a leg up on the competition. However, Anders Walter, who directed Helium, is a five-time nominee, and won for Election Night (Valgaften) in 1998. It also -- to me, anyways -- looks like the most interesting one. And Aquel No Era Yo looks very well-made too -- it could potentially sneak in there. But as I have to choose only one, and I figure it will be one of these two, I'm going with Helium. It just piques my interest a little more than the others.
Well, there you have it. The beginnings of my predictions for this year's Oscar awards. Next time around, Best Animated Feature and Best Foreign Film. Stay tuned ...
Over ten years ago when I was still writing movie reviews, one of the more popular reoccurring features was my Oscar predictions. Every year, about a week or so before the Oscar ceremony was televised, I would go through each and every category and predict who I thought would win. Success rate? Usually anywhere between 60 to 80%, depending on the year. This year, I thought I'd get the ball rolling a little bit earlier. I'm going to attempt to predict the Best Picture nominees that will be appearing on Academy members' ballots beginning Thursday morning!
Firstly, I have to keep in mind that there will be more nominees in the category than in the past. Up until five years ago, there were five best picture nominees. That's it, that's all. There had been no change in that since 1943, when there were usually about 10 nominees per category. Now, in the years since 2009 when the change was implemented, there have been 10 nominees twice (2009 & 2010), and 9 nominees twice (2011 & 2012). I'm going to go with 10 nominees, not only to increase my chances of success but also because the playing field is a little stronger. Of which, more later.
It's universally acknowledged that the Golden Globes are a precursor to the Oscars. After doing a little bit of research, I have found that since the expansion of the best picture roster, all the Best Motion Picture (Drama) nominees have been nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars, with the exception of one -- The Ides of March in 2011. That can be excused, however, due to the fact that for some reason that year's Globe Drama category held six nominees instead of the usual five. The other five in the category that year made it.
So who was nominated for best drama this year at the Globes? 12 Years A Slave won, besting its competitors Captain Phillips, Gravity, Philomena and Rush. So I'm just going to automatically throw those ones in there. If there's one I'm not sure of, it would be Rush. Ron Howard is one of those directors who is all or nothing. He has films the Academy deigns to recognize, such as Frost/Nixon, Cinderella Man, A Beautiful Mind, and Apollo 13. On the other hand, even though his movies are often hits with audiences, he sometimes finds himself shut out of awards races -- witness his Dan Brown adaptations (Da Vinci Code and Angels & Demons), The Missing, The Dilemma, Ed TV and Ransom. But it's been a few years and since he hasn't been recognized by Oscar voters since Frost/Nixon in 2008, I think his film will show up on the shortlist -- or should I say longlist -- of best picture nominees. It'll probably end up with four or five nominations -- picture, supporting actor, sound mixing, sound editing and film editing.
As for the others, 12 Years A Slave is a shoo-in, and Captain Phillips and Gravity are pretty much locks as well. What about Philomena, you ask? Well, it's a British tearjerker starring Judi Dench, produced by the Weinstein Company. After that, it's simple mathematics. Even though you've never heard of it, get ready for the onslaught -- it will be nominated for best picture, I guarantee you!
This is where it gets a little tricky. The past couple of years, two of the Best Motion Picture (Comedy or Musical) nominees have also gotten top-tier Oscar nods -- the winner of the Globe category and one other. In 2010, it was only the winner in the Globe Comedy/Musical category who was recognized. And the year before that, when Oscar's roster was expanded, none made it through to the Oscar shortlist. That's right, you heard me: zero, zilch, nada. But as mentioned before, the playing field is a little stronger this year; you don't have a dud like The Tourist filling up space just because you need to fit five nominees into the Globes' Comedy/Musical category. They're all pretty strong, not only because they've been rocking the vote, so to speak, but because they all -- ALL, I tell you -- are directed by Oscar heavyweights. Joel and Ethan Coen (Inside Llweyn Davis)? Check. Spike Jonze (Her)? Check. Alexander Payne (Nebraska)? Check. David O Russell (American Hustle)? Double check. Hell, you've even got the creme de la creme of American auteurs, Martin Scorsese (The Wolf Of Wall Street).
Could all of these be nominated for best picture at the Oscars? It's quite possible. But I'm going to pick three of them. That means, by sheer means of elimination, that two will not make my list of Best Picture Oscar predictions. The most likely film NOT to be nominated for Best Picture is Her. Screenplay and Actor, most probably. But I just can't see it as being an Academy favorite -- probably a little too odd for the retired 75-year-old actor or set dresser who makes up 40% of the people who actually vote on these things. Of the others, American Hustle and Wolf Of Wall Street look like a cinch. Since Gangs Of New York in 2002, four out of Marty's five feature films have been nominated for Best Picture (Gangs, The Aviator, The Departed and Hugo). The only one that wasn't was Shutter Island, which quite frankly was good enough to be a best picture nominee, only it was released in the no-man's-land of February. And of course David O Russell mixed and matched the casts of his best picture nominated Silver Linings Playbook and The Fighter, and he seems to be Oscar's go-to faux-indie director as of late.
Which leaves Nebraska and Inside Llewyn Davis. While both could conceivable get through and make the top slot (and I wouldn't be totally surprised if this happens on Thursday), I'm going to jump on my psychologist's chair and guess that that Inside Llewyn Davis will be on the outside looking in. Please, allow me to explain why. Nebraska is about a son trying to reconnect with his father, who he barely knows, on a road trip from Montana to Nebraska. It's about two people who never really made it in this world -- the father, a senile alcoholic Vietnam vet, and the son, who's stuck in a dead-end job he can't stand. Llewyn Davis is about failure as well -- artistic failure. And therein lies the rub. He gives his heart and soul to his art, neglecting everything else -- and gets nothing for it.
Now think about who's voting for the Oscars. People in the Hollywood industry. Working or retired artists and professionals -- in the case of Oscar voters, mostly successful professionals. Llewyn was a hit with critics because it spoke to them. Let's face it, many film critics are failed writers/actors/directors. They love art and have artistic intent and integrity, and yet were unable to succeed in their first career choices. This is not something I think Academy voters want to think about. It may hit a bit TOO close to home for some of them. And for the others, I think there will be a certain denial involved -- "It's okay to support a film featuring a loser, an unqualified non-success in life -- as long as it has no relation to anything I'm familiar with; then it's too much to think about!!!" I'm quite certain Inside Llewyn Davis resonated a lot more with the critics than it will with Oscar voters, and for that matter I will leave it off the shortlist. Nebraska it is.
So now we have eight nominees. But through the years there have always been a couple of best picture nominees that the Golden Globes have out-and-out missed. Last year it was Amour and Beasts Of The Southern Wild. The year before that it was Tree Of Life and Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close. The year before that it was 127 Hours, Toy Story 3, True Grit and Winter's Bone. What do all these movies have in common? They were either completely shut out of the Golden Globes, or only got a couple of nominations. So now, my predictions for the final two slots in the Oscar race: The Butler and Saving Mr Banks.
I know what you're thinking. Wow, those are some pretty tame choices. No August: Osage County? That has Meryl Streep, Julia Roberts, Chris Cooper, Ewan McGregor, Benedict Cumberbatch!!! How could that not possibly get a best picture nomination? I'll tell you, my friend -- for the same reason that Doubt -- with an all-star cast including Streep, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Amy Adams and Viola Davis -- wasn't nominated. It was a showcase for great performances (Doubt got four acting nods, and a writing one to boot) but didn't have any obvious all-encompassing, overarching themes. None that had a bit of light at the end of the tunnel, anyways. Okay, well what about Dallas Buyers Club? It won two Globes, for goodness sake!!! So did Dreamgirls. And Walk The Line. And Closer. Do you want me to go on? I'm sure McConaughey and Leto will both get nods in their respective acting categories, but I just can't picture a whole bunch of key grips and gaffers and sound technicians prefering this over, say, Saving Mr. Banks.
Regarding which, I think Tom Hanks has a little bit of a saviour complex going on. Fifteen years ago he saved Private Ryan. Now he's saving Mr. Banks. Give him another couple of decades and he'll probably be starring in Saving Ira's Dentures, the whole plot of which features him turning his nursing home upside down looking for his teeth. Hey, if Redford can put on a one-man show at the ripe old age of 77, there's no reason Tom Hanks can't do it either! At any rate, Saving Mr. Banks is the type of showbiz movie that Hollywood voters prefer over fare such as Inside Llewyn Davis. They're set in the same time period, but Saving focuses on movies, and a much-beloved one at that; not only that, Tom plays one of the most beloved American icons of all time (just don't ask Meryl Streep), Walt Disney (and trust me, if his performance in Captain Phillips wasn't going to get him a shoo-in best actor nomination, he would get recognized for Saving Mr. Banks based on name recognition alone). Throw in the whole "triumph over adversity" angle that Oscar always seems to masturbate over, and you have yourself the ninth best picture nominee.
And joining it: Lee Daniels' The Butler. This is a movie that had a huge amount of buzz back in late summer / early fall, and then it just seemed to fall off the face of the earth. Nevertheless, I'm predicting it will get in due to three main reasons. 1) It was released in theatres in August, and just came out on Blu-Ray a couple of weeks ago. This will garner it votes from many people who don't get out much, just by the dates of its releases. 2) It has a big cast of actors who have done a wide range of movies. Forrest Whitaker, Oprah, John Cusack, Jane Fonda, Cuba Gooding, Terrence Howard, Lenny Kravitz, James Marsden, Vanessa Redgrave, Alan Rickman, Liev Schreiber, Robin Williams and Clarence Williams III -- and that's just the above-the-title cast. Also in the cast: Mariah Carey, Minka Kelly, Elijah Kelley, and David Oyelowo. I can easily see a recently-retired Teamster sitting at home saying "Hmmmm ... I worked with Cuba Gooding Jr on Chill Factor -- he always had time to say hi to me. I think I'll vote for The Butler". Trust me, sometimes these things work this way. Last but not least, 3) it's a historical movie featuring real characters, a triumph-over-adversity storyline, and drama inherent in its civil rights setting. Think of it as The Help II: All The Man's Presidents. I've called this one as a best picture nominee from the start, and I'm not going to give up on it now. In fact, the only way I can see The Butler NOT getting nominated is if the Academy voters figure it's too similar to 12 Years A Slave, and choose to disregard it thusly. Because like Solomon Northup's story, Cecil Gaines' tale also focuses on black people. Too similar, you see. All those black people. Harumph!!! Howard, bring me another mint julep!!!
Sorry, got sidetracked for a minute there. So there you have it: after much long-winded consideration, these are my predictions for the 10 best picture nominees at the Academy Awards. Can't wait until Thursday to see if I am right!
American Hustle
The Butler
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Nebraska
Philomena
Rush
Saving Mr. Banks
12 Years A Slave
The Wolf Of Wall Street
Hello, everybody, and happy new year!
Sorry it's taken so long for me to start writing. Between packing for the upcoming move, taking the Jeopardy Online Test, and rehearsing for a play (and auditioning for another one) -- oh yeah, and the requisite 40 hours per week at work -- this week's been fairly busy.
I have found time to indulge in one of my passions, however, and that is reading. One of the great things about the written word is that it can transport you anywhere, to any place in time, and you feel like you know that world; that you belong -- nay, that you ARE part of that world. Right now I have three books on the go: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe by CS Lewis (book two of the Chronicles of Narnia series, the whole of which is my bedside reading for the foreseeable future), The End of Your Life Book Club by Will Schwalbe (an autobiography about a man and his mother who being a sort of book club as it were, discussing their favorite works of literature while she undergoes chemo for Stage Four cancer), and most recently The Book Thief by Markus Zusak, which is in theatres as we speak.
Apparently there has been a slight rise in the amount of people reading thanks to e-readers and tablets. While I'm thankful that people are able to indulge their imaginations in any way shape or form, there's still something about holding a book in your hand that's comforting. And yes, slightly magical. I realize that physically, it's one and the same no matter whether it's old-school or electronic. The words on the page (or screen) are reaching your brain and stimulating the various imagination impulses. I get that. But holding those words in the palm of your hand, the touch and the smell and sheer tangibility of a bound and printed book is, for me at least, far superior. It could be a paperback hot off the press, with that new book smell and a flashy movie-poster style cover. It could be a musty old tome, one with thick pages that you know were bound before the age of mass-production, the ones whose pages from the side and top look almost corrugated, like the tops of the old potato chip bags we ate when we were children. And the smell -- ah, the sweet heavenly smell when you open a book for the first time, having no idea where the journey will lead you but projecting a sense of serenity and trust in your new-found literary friend as you deeply inhale the wonders of the written word.
The smell of a book that's been collecting dust on the shelves of a used bookstore or library for decades is a sensory treasure that's all-too rarely discovered these days. And their covers, sometimes sun-dappled and cracked, sometimes damp and musty -- the gilt-edged hardbacks that have long-ago been stripped of their jackets (some may have never had any) -- all are a part of the wonderful physicality of reading. Just as a mother protects its young, so too does the cover of a book; no matter how long it's been neglected by the rest of humanity, its story is there to be experienced by you and your imagination. You possess it. You live through its pages. Many others have done so in the past, and many more will do likewise in the future, but for the time it takes to finish the tale, that story is yours and yours alone. Its world is your world. Its characters are your friends. And just as the most important people and places in your life will always be with you, so too are your favorite books, with their characters and settings that stay with you forever. They are, in a word, unforgettable.
