Over ten years ago when I was still writing movie reviews, one of the more popular reoccurring features was my Oscar predictions. Every year, about a week or so before the Oscar ceremony was televised, I would go through each and every category and predict who I thought would win. Success rate? Usually anywhere between 60 to 80%, depending on the year. This year, I thought I'd get the ball rolling a little bit earlier. I'm going to attempt to predict the Best Picture nominees that will be appearing on Academy members' ballots beginning Thursday morning!
Firstly, I have to keep in mind that there will be more nominees in the category than in the past. Up until five years ago, there were five best picture nominees. That's it, that's all. There had been no change in that since 1943, when there were usually about 10 nominees per category. Now, in the years since 2009 when the change was implemented, there have been 10 nominees twice (2009 & 2010), and 9 nominees twice (2011 & 2012). I'm going to go with 10 nominees, not only to increase my chances of success but also because the playing field is a little stronger. Of which, more later.
It's universally acknowledged that the Golden Globes are a precursor to the Oscars. After doing a little bit of research, I have found that since the expansion of the best picture roster, all the Best Motion Picture (Drama) nominees have been nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars, with the exception of one -- The Ides of March in 2011. That can be excused, however, due to the fact that for some reason that year's Globe Drama category held six nominees instead of the usual five. The other five in the category that year made it.
So who was nominated for best drama this year at the Globes? 12 Years A Slave won, besting its competitors Captain Phillips, Gravity, Philomena and Rush. So I'm just going to automatically throw those ones in there. If there's one I'm not sure of, it would be Rush. Ron Howard is one of those directors who is all or nothing. He has films the Academy deigns to recognize, such as Frost/Nixon, Cinderella Man, A Beautiful Mind, and Apollo 13. On the other hand, even though his movies are often hits with audiences, he sometimes finds himself shut out of awards races -- witness his Dan Brown adaptations (Da Vinci Code and Angels & Demons), The Missing, The Dilemma, Ed TV and Ransom. But it's been a few years and since he hasn't been recognized by Oscar voters since Frost/Nixon in 2008, I think his film will show up on the shortlist -- or should I say longlist -- of best picture nominees. It'll probably end up with four or five nominations -- picture, supporting actor, sound mixing, sound editing and film editing.
As for the others, 12 Years A Slave is a shoo-in, and Captain Phillips and Gravity are pretty much locks as well. What about Philomena, you ask? Well, it's a British tearjerker starring Judi Dench, produced by the Weinstein Company. After that, it's simple mathematics. Even though you've never heard of it, get ready for the onslaught -- it will be nominated for best picture, I guarantee you!
This is where it gets a little tricky. The past couple of years, two of the Best Motion Picture (Comedy or Musical) nominees have also gotten top-tier Oscar nods -- the winner of the Globe category and one other. In 2010, it was only the winner in the Globe Comedy/Musical category who was recognized. And the year before that, when Oscar's roster was expanded, none made it through to the Oscar shortlist. That's right, you heard me: zero, zilch, nada. But as mentioned before, the playing field is a little stronger this year; you don't have a dud like The Tourist filling up space just because you need to fit five nominees into the Globes' Comedy/Musical category. They're all pretty strong, not only because they've been rocking the vote, so to speak, but because they all -- ALL, I tell you -- are directed by Oscar heavyweights. Joel and Ethan Coen (Inside Llweyn Davis)? Check. Spike Jonze (Her)? Check. Alexander Payne (Nebraska)? Check. David O Russell (American Hustle)? Double check. Hell, you've even got the creme de la creme of American auteurs, Martin Scorsese (The Wolf Of Wall Street).
Could all of these be nominated for best picture at the Oscars? It's quite possible. But I'm going to pick three of them. That means, by sheer means of elimination, that two will not make my list of Best Picture Oscar predictions. The most likely film NOT to be nominated for Best Picture is Her. Screenplay and Actor, most probably. But I just can't see it as being an Academy favorite -- probably a little too odd for the retired 75-year-old actor or set dresser who makes up 40% of the people who actually vote on these things. Of the others, American Hustle and Wolf Of Wall Street look like a cinch. Since Gangs Of New York in 2002, four out of Marty's five feature films have been nominated for Best Picture (Gangs, The Aviator, The Departed and Hugo). The only one that wasn't was Shutter Island, which quite frankly was good enough to be a best picture nominee, only it was released in the no-man's-land of February. And of course David O Russell mixed and matched the casts of his best picture nominated Silver Linings Playbook and The Fighter, and he seems to be Oscar's go-to faux-indie director as of late.
Which leaves Nebraska and Inside Llewyn Davis. While both could conceivable get through and make the top slot (and I wouldn't be totally surprised if this happens on Thursday), I'm going to jump on my psychologist's chair and guess that that Inside Llewyn Davis will be on the outside looking in. Please, allow me to explain why. Nebraska is about a son trying to reconnect with his father, who he barely knows, on a road trip from Montana to Nebraska. It's about two people who never really made it in this world -- the father, a senile alcoholic Vietnam vet, and the son, who's stuck in a dead-end job he can't stand. Llewyn Davis is about failure as well -- artistic failure. And therein lies the rub. He gives his heart and soul to his art, neglecting everything else -- and gets nothing for it.
Now think about who's voting for the Oscars. People in the Hollywood industry. Working or retired artists and professionals -- in the case of Oscar voters, mostly successful professionals. Llewyn was a hit with critics because it spoke to them. Let's face it, many film critics are failed writers/actors/directors. They love art and have artistic intent and integrity, and yet were unable to succeed in their first career choices. This is not something I think Academy voters want to think about. It may hit a bit TOO close to home for some of them. And for the others, I think there will be a certain denial involved -- "It's okay to support a film featuring a loser, an unqualified non-success in life -- as long as it has no relation to anything I'm familiar with; then it's too much to think about!!!" I'm quite certain Inside Llewyn Davis resonated a lot more with the critics than it will with Oscar voters, and for that matter I will leave it off the shortlist. Nebraska it is.
So now we have eight nominees. But through the years there have always been a couple of best picture nominees that the Golden Globes have out-and-out missed. Last year it was Amour and Beasts Of The Southern Wild. The year before that it was Tree Of Life and Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close. The year before that it was 127 Hours, Toy Story 3, True Grit and Winter's Bone. What do all these movies have in common? They were either completely shut out of the Golden Globes, or only got a couple of nominations. So now, my predictions for the final two slots in the Oscar race: The Butler and Saving Mr Banks.
I know what you're thinking. Wow, those are some pretty tame choices. No August: Osage County? That has Meryl Streep, Julia Roberts, Chris Cooper, Ewan McGregor, Benedict Cumberbatch!!! How could that not possibly get a best picture nomination? I'll tell you, my friend -- for the same reason that Doubt -- with an all-star cast including Streep, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Amy Adams and Viola Davis -- wasn't nominated. It was a showcase for great performances (Doubt got four acting nods, and a writing one to boot) but didn't have any obvious all-encompassing, overarching themes. None that had a bit of light at the end of the tunnel, anyways. Okay, well what about Dallas Buyers Club? It won two Globes, for goodness sake!!! So did Dreamgirls. And Walk The Line. And Closer. Do you want me to go on? I'm sure McConaughey and Leto will both get nods in their respective acting categories, but I just can't picture a whole bunch of key grips and gaffers and sound technicians prefering this over, say, Saving Mr. Banks.
Regarding which, I think Tom Hanks has a little bit of a saviour complex going on. Fifteen years ago he saved Private Ryan. Now he's saving Mr. Banks. Give him another couple of decades and he'll probably be starring in Saving Ira's Dentures, the whole plot of which features him turning his nursing home upside down looking for his teeth. Hey, if Redford can put on a one-man show at the ripe old age of 77, there's no reason Tom Hanks can't do it either! At any rate, Saving Mr. Banks is the type of showbiz movie that Hollywood voters prefer over fare such as Inside Llewyn Davis. They're set in the same time period, but Saving focuses on movies, and a much-beloved one at that; not only that, Tom plays one of the most beloved American icons of all time (just don't ask Meryl Streep), Walt Disney (and trust me, if his performance in Captain Phillips wasn't going to get him a shoo-in best actor nomination, he would get recognized for Saving Mr. Banks based on name recognition alone). Throw in the whole "triumph over adversity" angle that Oscar always seems to masturbate over, and you have yourself the ninth best picture nominee.
And joining it: Lee Daniels' The Butler. This is a movie that had a huge amount of buzz back in late summer / early fall, and then it just seemed to fall off the face of the earth. Nevertheless, I'm predicting it will get in due to three main reasons. 1) It was released in theatres in August, and just came out on Blu-Ray a couple of weeks ago. This will garner it votes from many people who don't get out much, just by the dates of its releases. 2) It has a big cast of actors who have done a wide range of movies. Forrest Whitaker, Oprah, John Cusack, Jane Fonda, Cuba Gooding, Terrence Howard, Lenny Kravitz, James Marsden, Vanessa Redgrave, Alan Rickman, Liev Schreiber, Robin Williams and Clarence Williams III -- and that's just the above-the-title cast. Also in the cast: Mariah Carey, Minka Kelly, Elijah Kelley, and David Oyelowo. I can easily see a recently-retired Teamster sitting at home saying "Hmmmm ... I worked with Cuba Gooding Jr on Chill Factor -- he always had time to say hi to me. I think I'll vote for The Butler". Trust me, sometimes these things work this way. Last but not least, 3) it's a historical movie featuring real characters, a triumph-over-adversity storyline, and drama inherent in its civil rights setting. Think of it as The Help II: All The Man's Presidents. I've called this one as a best picture nominee from the start, and I'm not going to give up on it now. In fact, the only way I can see The Butler NOT getting nominated is if the Academy voters figure it's too similar to 12 Years A Slave, and choose to disregard it thusly. Because like Solomon Northup's story, Cecil Gaines' tale also focuses on black people. Too similar, you see. All those black people. Harumph!!! Howard, bring me another mint julep!!!
Sorry, got sidetracked for a minute there. So there you have it: after much long-winded consideration, these are my predictions for the 10 best picture nominees at the Academy Awards. Can't wait until Thursday to see if I am right!
American Hustle
The Butler
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Nebraska
Philomena
Rush
Saving Mr. Banks
12 Years A Slave
The Wolf Of Wall Street
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