Matt's Guide to the Oscars 2015

The Academy awards are almost upon us, and you know what that means:  time for another edition of my annual Guide to the Oscars, Volume 18.  I’ve been doing this since my days as a film critic; and while I left that vocation over a decade ago, I’ve always tried to do an Oscar preview as often as I could.  The reason?  It’s a lot of fun, plain and simple! 

For those of you who are first-time readers, I delineate who's nominated and why through fun-filled analysis.  For each category I will add my own personal opinions with four themes: who I want to win, who I think will win, who I think should win, and who was screwed in the voting.  I usually average between 75-80% with my choices.  Last year I got seven out of the top eight (picture, director, the four acting awards and the two writing awards) correct, and last year I got 19 out of 24 right.  It’ll be interesting to see how it goes this year.  Anyways, without further ado, here is Matt’s Guide to the 87^th Annual Academy Awards.  Enjoy!

First off is Best Picture.  Here are the nominees, with the descriptions taken from the Academy Awards website and a link to the theatrical trailer.

• American Sniper, Warner Bros.  Produced by Clint Eastwood, Robert Lorenz, Andrew Lazar, Bradley Cooper, Peter Morgan.  Already skilled with a rifle before he joins the Navy SEALS and departs for Iraq, Chris Kyle (Bradley Cooper) becomes one of the most skilled snipers in U.S. military history. As he rotates through four tours of duty, however, Kyle must deal with the high levels of stress and the toll on his personal life that are an unavoidable part of his harrowing work.
•  Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance), Fox Searchlight.  Produced by Alejandro G Iñárritu, John Lesher,  James W Skotchdopole.  Best known to the public as Birdman, the superhero he once played in a series of films, Riggan Thomson (Michael Keaton) hopes to reestablish himself as a serious actor by mounting his own dramatic production on Broadway. With his self-doubt hindering the project, Thomson also finds himself threatened by the presence of a high-profile, egotistical movie star (Edward Norton) in his cast.
•  Boyhood, IFC Films.  Produced by Richard Linklater, Cathleen Sutherland.  Over the course of 12 years, a young boy named Mason (Ellar Coltrane) experiences the joys and difficulties of childhood. The child of divorced parents (Patricia Arquette and Ethan Hawke), both of whom are facing their own set of challenges, Mason, along with his sister Samantha (Lorelei Linklater), learns to navigate through a world in which the strengths and frailties of the adults around him have a profound impact on his own life.
•  The Grand Budapest Hotel, Fox Searchlight.  Produced by Wes Anderson, Scott Rudin, Steven Rales, Jeremy Dawson.  As the owner of a once-luxurious Alpine hotel (F. Murray Abraham) relates its history to a visiting writer (Jude Law), he describes his youth as a lobby boy (Tony Revolori) at the Grand Budapest, where he was the protégé of the hotel's concierge, Monsieur Gustave (Ralph Fiennes). Gustave runs the five-star establishment with panache and an iron fist, while also offering his services as a lover to the older, wealthy women guests.
•  The Imitation Game, The Weinstein Company .  Produced by Nora Grossman, Ido Ostrowsky, Teddy Schwarzman.  As World War II engulfs Europe, a group of English mathematicians are assembled at Bletchley Park to work in secret on cracking the code of a captured German Enigma encryption machine. With England's fate hanging in the balance, the group's leader, the brilliant, eccentric Alan Turing (Benedict Cumberbatch), must hide his homosexuality or risk arrest and persecution by the country he is fighting to save.
•  Selma, Paramount.  Produced by Christian Colson, Oprah Winfrey, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner.  The life of civil rights leader Martin Luther King, Jr. (David Oyelowo) is examined through the dramatic events surrounding the historic 1965 freedom marches from Selma to Montgomery. Determined to fight the injustice and discrimination that African Americans continue to face in southern states despite the Civil Rights Act of 1964, King chooses Selma as the starting point for the peaceful protest marches that will focus the world's attention on the city and its response.
•  The Theory Of Everything, Focus Features.  Produced by Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Lisa Bruce, Anthony McCarten.  Stephen Hawking (Eddie Redmayne) is a brilliant Cambridge graduate student when he learns that he has a progressive motor neuron disease and may die within two years. For Jane Wilde (Felicity Jones), Stephen's fellow student and future wife, the prognosis represents not a certainty but a challenge that her faith and Stephen's passionate determination can overcome.
• Whiplash, Sony Pictures Classics.  Produced by Jason Blum, Helen Estabrook, David Lancaster.  Andrew (Miles Teller) is a 19-year-old music conservatory student who is determined to become a great jazz drummer. His talent and fierce passion draw the attention of the school's most intimidating teacher, Terence Fletcher (J.K. Simmons), who believes that students excel not through praise and encouragement, but through relentless humiliation and fear.

 COMMENTARY:  Through the past, oh, quarter century or so, Oscar has fallen into a sort of pattern in regards to its best picture nominees.  There always seem to be a few classifications that always make the cut, no matter what year it is.  Before 2009, when the Academy limited its best picture nominees to five, I had divided them into five categories (as such):  the Epic, the Box-Office Hit, the Brit/Chick Flick, the Triumph Over Adversity/Biopic, and The Other Flick.  While there are more choices to be had these days, the classifications remain pretty much the same.  The Epic is pretty self-explanatory; generally lasting over two-and-a-half hours, spanning a number of years, with a grand scope (Braveheart, Titanic, Gladiator).  The Box-Office Hit likewise is self-descriptive; films in this category made a shitload of money (Apollo 13, The Sixth Sense, Avatar).  The Brit/Chick Flick has two species to its classification:  the low-key British biopic (The Hours, The Queen, The King's Speech) and what used to be referred to as "women's films," i.e. romantic comedies, three-hankie weepers, and the like (Sense And Sensibility, Shakespeare In Love, Moulin Rouge!).  The Triumph Over Adversity/Biopic is self-explanatory as well; if it's not telling a true story of someone triumphing over incredible odds (In The Name Of The Father, A Beautiful Mind, The Blind Side), it's telling a fictional story of someone triumphing over incredible odds (The Shawshank Redemption, Good Will Hunting, Slumdog Millionaire).  They're usually critics' faves, make you feel good at the end type deals.  Lastly we have The Other Flick.  These ones are usually harder to nail down.  Usually smaller-budget independent type movies, or dealing with darker subject matter than the Academy usually recognizes, these used to be the "thanks for showing up but we want to smile so you don't have a chance in hell of winning" type films (The Piano, Fargo, In The Bedroom), but have more recently become accepted and even won (American Beauty, Million Dollar Baby, No Country For Old Men).

So of the nominees this year, what category do they fall into?  Well, the Box-Office Hit is a no-brainer; that's American Sniper.  The Epic would be Boyhood; not your father's Lawrence Of Arabia / Ben-Hur type epic, either.  It's smaller in scope (a cast of dozens as opposed to a cast of thousands) but it runs the gamut of emotions, spans twelve years in the life of a family, and lasts two hours and 45 minutes.  There are two members of the Brit/Chick Flick classification this year:  The Imitation Game and The Theory of Everything.  Those two could also fall under the category of Triumph Over Adversity/Biopic, in addition to Selma.  Which leaves Birdman, Grand Budapest Hotel and Whiplash as Other Flicks, who don't necessarily fit into a certain category but are comedic auteur films (Grand Budapest), dark as fuck (Whiplash), or both (Birdman).

 WHO I WANT TO WIN:  I loved Birdman.  It was one of the last best picture nominees I had seen, and to be honest I wasn't really looking forward to it; it just seemed too obvious, and the few snippets I'd seen in trailers and commercials hadn't really piqued my interest.  The historian in me really loved Selma; so what if it wasn't 100% accurate - in regards to how certain white people (notice the italics there?  Good.) were portrayed?  You want unfiltered, uncensored, unbiased portrayals?  Well, you had better get a time machine and travel back to the sixties and march your fine self into the White House, because goddamn it, everything and I mean EVERYTHING told or seen second-hand is filtered, censored, and biased.  Historical films especially.  And in case you're waiting for me to tell you to read a book or watch a documentary to get the real picture -- guess what?  All are written or produced by people who have an agenda one way or another.  Selma was an amazing movie.  Wonderful performances all across the board, some intense and moving scenes, and it left you feeling both raw and uplifted at the end.  I have rarely left a movie so full of both hope and despair.  Hope because I know humanity has come so far, and despair because I know we are light years away from where we could be.  And back to hope again because, as Morgan Freeman says in The Shawshank Redemption, "Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things; and no good thing ever dies."  But I digress.  

My thoughts on the other nominees?  Whiplash was 42nd Street with a drum set; nothing wrong with that, but I'd rather gaze at Ruby Keeler's gams than Miles Teller's self-satisfied mug any day of the week.  The Theory of Everything was a good movie with amazing performances by its two leads, but oddly enough the film as a whole really didn't move me as I expected it to.  Ditto for The Imitation Game.  I quite enjoyed American Sniper.  Actually, I'm not sure enjoyed is the right word; I definitely appreciated it, though.  What I really appreciated was the fact that Clint Eastwood took Chris Kyle's story and just put it out there on the screen.  There were no real flag-waving "he was a REAL AMERICAN HERO so you MUST LOVE HIM!!!" sermons, and neither was it a condemnation of war.  Clint basically said, "This is the man.  This was his life.  This is what he went through, at home and abroad," and let the audience come to their own conclusions via their own beliefs and personal history.  Grand Budapest starred my man-crush Ralph Fiennes (never thought I'd live to see the day when two of my favorite actors - Fiennes and Edward Norton - shared the screen), and I've always been a Wes Anderson fan, so I definitely enjoyed it, but as I said before, it's light and fluffy, and quite frankly, I'm surprised to admit that I actually preferred Royal Tenenbaums and Life Aquatic.  As for Boyhood, it's interesting.  The first time I saw it I couldn't see past the "gimmick", if you will.  After watching it a second time, I realized that, hell, after all is said and done, it's still Linklater.  All his movies are snippets of life, be it spread out over a couple of hours (Slacker), an evening (the grossly underrated SubUbia), a weekend (Dazed And Confused), or in this case twelve years.  There are no real sudden and dramatic character turns.  Nobody gets shot.  Shit doesn't explode.  None of the actors emote grotesquely and beg for an Oscar.  It's just a slice of life, and somehow I'd forgetten that amidst all the publicity and awards hullabaloo.  Still, I have to say that Birdman tops the bill for me.  I loved its "all one shot" way of filming a movie; especially in the very early scenes, it was incredibly theatrical, like seeing a filmed play.  I loved the drama, both onstage and off; like I said, being an actor, I can relate.  What really got me was the ending; it's so vague, and points in no direction and every direction at once; there are so many different takes you can get from it.  So after much deliberation, I would have to say Birdman is my favourite of this year's best picture nominees.

WHO WILL WIN:  This category, unlike the acting awards this year, is a tough one to call.  We can basically rule out five of the nominees and focus on three.  Whiplash is this year's Beasts of the Southern Wild - an independent movie by a new director that wouldn't have gotten a nomination had there been only five places, and which powered its way into the final eight by virtue of being a critics' darling and having an outstanding, out-of-nowhere performance by one of its actors.  The Theory of Everything and The Imitation Game are well-made British dramas that have picked up little steam in the past few weeks, and are pretty much placeholders at this point.  Selma is a wonderful movie, but only has two nominations.  The last movie to win best picture with hardly any nominations was Grand Hotel in 1931-32, 82 years ago; due to MGM forcing all its employees to vote for it, Edmund Goulding's star-studded soap opera took the prize on its only nod.  American Sniper has done boffo box office over the past few years, but it's too much of a hot-button issue for the Academy to get behind at the moment (on which more later).  Which leaves Birdman, Boyhood, and The Grand Budapest Hotel.  They are all films by auteurs, i.e. highly regarded directors (who for the most part have worked independently of Hollywood) who have a definite style and way of making movies that is noticeable.  Birdman and Grand Budapest tied for the most nominations this year with nine, which always helps a film's chances.  The actor's branch is the biggest branch of the Academy, accounting for almost 20% of the members.  This might not seem like much, but when it comes to the final balloting in which every member of every branch participates, it's a huge deal.  Now, Birdman is a film about theatre, and more specifically about actors, which will immediately intrigue the all-important 20%, and it's technically dazzling, which will help get some of the other guilds behind it.  Grand Budapest has a slew of technical nominations, but no acting nods, which hurts its chances somewhat; however, its cast is so huge, with so many roles (big and small), filled by name actors, that it's possible the modern-day version of the telephone game could have been happening over the past few weeks.  However, I think its story is a little too fluffy and slight for it to take home the big prize.  Boyhood only got six nominations, but they were all important ones (picture, director, screenplay, editing, and two acting nods).  It's been a juggernaut for the past four or five months, and it's only recently that the field has narrowed somewhat (if you can call going from a certainty to a 80% probability narrowing the field).  And while Birdman has been picking up a lot of steam lately (picking up the producer's guild award), I tend to think that the Academy will go with the comfortable, more heartfelt twelve-year labour of love that was Boyhood.  Oscar usually votes with posterity in mind; most of the time they would rather vote safely for a choice that will "fit the Academy mold" yet look nice years down the road, rather than choose something challenging or new (witness Forrest Gump's win over Pulp Fiction, The Shawshank Redemption AND Quiz Show in the same year).  There is the occasional Midnight Cowboy or No Country For Old Men, but those choices are few and far between.  So Boyhood it is.

WHO SHOULD WIN:  While I think Boyhood will garner the top award, I can't say enough about Birdman.  Acting-wise it is nearly perfect, and when you mix in the technical details and the multi-layered storyline, it is the obvious choice (in my opinion; but since this is my blog, hell ... everything here is my opinion!).  Selma would run a close second and if it weren't for its measly two nominations, would be considered a front-runner.


WHO WAS SCREWED:  I'm sweeping in from way out in left field with this one, but if I had to choose one movie that I saw which I think deserved to be among the top films of the year, it would have to be Dawn of the Planet of the Apes.  It gripped me from beginning to end.  There were moments of levity, tension and suspense, fear, and melancholy.  It moved me so much I recall at least three times the tears started flowing.  A wonderful movie which should have gotten at least five or six nominations, but only got one (for visual effects).  Also, Gone Girl continued David Fincher's streak of being able to do no wrong in my eyes.  I hadn't read the book, so I was totally unprepared for what the film had in store for me.  It was an emotional rollercoaster, and I think one of the reasons it hasn't gotten awards recognition is that it forces you to confront yourself and your life in ways that are quite unpleasant to think about.  So rather than really pondering some deep and poignant shit, Oscar voters pretty much brushed it off into "the less said about it, the better" pile.

Best Director
Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel (Fox Searchlight).
Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) (Fox Searchlight).
Richard Linklater, Boyhood (IFC Films).
Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher (Sony Pictures Classics).
Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game (The Weinstein Company).

COMMENTARY:  As I mentioned earlier, three of the directors this year also co-produced and co-wrote their films (those would be the first three in our list).  This is the first time in history that three people have been nominated as producer, director, and writer for their respective films in the same year.  It speaks to the personal and independent nature of this year's awards.  

WHO I WANT TO WIN:  I loved the movie, so I would have to go with Iñárritu for Birdman.  The Mexican director took a leap of faith (like his fellow countryman Alfonso Cuaron last year, he flew close to the sun, as it were), and it paid off in spades.  Now if we can get Guillermo del Toro nominated next year for Crimson Peak, we can make it a trifecta - three Mexican best director winners in a row!  Olé!

WHO WILL WIN:  That being said, while I'm sure Iñárritu will garner his fair share of votes, I think it's pretty much a foregone conclusion that Linklater has this one in the bag.  It's Tyldum's first nomination, and his film has pretty much remained stagnant since the nominations were announced, so you can count him out.  Likewise for Bennett Miller; his movie wasn't nominated for best picture, and you have to go all the way back to 1928-29 (the second annual Academy Awards, so, oh ... only about 85 years ago) to find the only time a director has won without his picture at least being nominated for best picture.  For you trivia buffs out there who care about such things, Frank Lloyd won for The Divine Lady, which was basically a romantic drama about Admiral Horatio Nelson and Lady Emma Hamilton (a story which was done better twelve years later by Alexander Korda, starring Vivien Leigh and Laurence Olivier); best picture that year went to The Broadway Melody.  Wes Anderson will probably have to suffice himself with a writing award this year, which leaves Iñárritu and Linklater.  And while Birdman was an incredible piece of work, the perseverance and dedication Linklater showed, putting his trust in his actors and crew to keep coming back (and not die on him) over twelve years is too much to overcome.

WHO SHOULD WIN:  Iñárritu.  His film, simply put, was a work of artistry.  He takes the medium of cinema and uses it in new and exciting ways.

WHO WAS SCREWED:  David Fincher, definitely.  Ridley Scott, although his movie wasn't perfect, had some great ideas with Exodus - Gods And Kings, and of course his visual style is second to none.  Ava DuVernay could have probably snuck in there, although the direction was one of the least remarkable parts of Selma.  But to me, of all the major contenders, the one who got screwed the most was Clint Eastwood.  And I'll tell you why.  (steps on soapbox and clears throat).  Eastwood took a subject that can be extremely divisive and was able to get people on both sides of the political divide to appreciate it.  A lot of it has to do with the fact, as I mentioned earlier, that he lets the audience do the work.  He doesn't go the Bruckheimer route and pump the gung-ho music while the actors stride triumphantly towards the camera; neither does he go all Michael Moore on us and condemn everything that's happening on screen.  The protagonist, Chris Kyle (played by Bradley Cooper) is neither deified nor demonized; we witness how he decides to join the military, and are privy to snippets from his many tours of duty and also his life in between when he returns to America.  Kyle's antagonist, a Syrian sniper known only as Mustafa (played by Sammy Sheik), while a scary and threatening presence, is basically Chris Kyle if he was on the other side; in other words, but for the life he was born into, it could easily be the story of Mustafa as well.  It hearkened me back to 2006, when Eastwood delivered the one-two cinematic punch of Flags Of Our Fathers and the far superior Letters From Iwo Jima.  And yet after all this the Academy decided to nominated Bennett Fucking Miller for the glacial silent film (practically) Foxcatcher.  Jesus Christ.  Foxcatcher my ass.  More like Dreamcatcher, as that shit put everyone in the motherfucking theatre to sleep.  Sigh ...

Best Actor
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher (Sony Pictures Classics).  As John du Pont, Steve Carell plays an eccentric millionaire who invites an Olympic wrestler to live and train at his estate.
Bradley Cooper, American Sniper (Warner Bros).  Bradley Cooper plays Chris Kyle, a military marksman dealing with the stress and personal toll caused by his deployment as a sniper.
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game (The Weinstein Company).  Benedict Cumberbatch portrays Alan Turing, a brilliant mathematician working on a top secret project to crack the Nazis' encryption code.
Michael Keaton, Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) (Fox Searchlight).  Michael Keaton plays Riggan, an actor preparing to appear in a Broadway play, although he is best known for his portrayal of a popular superhero.
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything (Focus Features).  Eddie Redmayne plays Stephen Hawking, a brilliant young cosmologist who learns that he is suffering from a progressive motor neuron disease.

COMMENTARY:  This is the third straight year Bradley Cooper's been nominated for an Oscar.  Who would have thought three years ago (with a track record of Wedding Crashers, All About Steve, The A-Team, and a couple of Hangover movies to that point) that Cooper would ever be nominated for an Oscar, let alone have the most Oscar love in his category (everyone else is new to the ball).  

WHO I WANT TO WIN:  Well, I loved Birdman, and I thought Keaton was fantastic in the role.  From the opening scene levitating in his room in nothing but his underpants to his flight through New York City, his performance verily soared.  And considering the fact that sometimes he was doing ten to fifteen minutes straight acting without a cut (the film is made to seem as if it were all one shot, but is cleverly filmed and edited to look that way; there are are at least 16 camouflaged cuts, and probably more), running the gamut from the heights of ecstasy to the pits of despair and back in one take (much like a theatrical actor).  My favorite scene?  Has to be when he was quite figuratively tearing his dressing room apart when Zack Galifianakis' character burst in on him through the door, and Keaton went from screaming at the top of his lungs and throwing shit around to a casual, "Hey, what's up?" in the blink of an eye.  Had me in stitches.  And, irregardless of performance (because you KNOW Oscar sometimes votes for a body of work or a career of longevity rather than a specific performance), I think he's paid his dues as well.  From Beetlejuice (or, as I prefer to spell it, Betelgeuse) to the first two Batman movies, to my favorite Keaton performance(s) in Multiplicity - and let's not forget his incredibly funny role as Dogberry in Kenneth Branagh's Much Ado About Nothing - he's been hanging around quite a while.  He took a big risk playing what amounts to a parody of himself, or at least his public image, and the gamble paid off.  I would also like to say that I would not be disappointed if the Academy decided to give Les Miserables' Marius, Eddie Redmayne, some Oscar love; I'd drink to that!  But Redmayne will most likely have many more chances in the future, so my heart is for Keaton.

WHO WILL WIN:  This is really the only acting category that isn't yet a foregone conclusion.  This has, for the longest time, been a two-horse race, and it's only recently that rumblings of a possible Bradley Cooper upset have emerged.  I don't really think that will happen, although if it does, it would be a solid choice.  I've never seen Cooper so submerged in a role; even in more dramatic fare, he's always maintained a sort of above-it-all attitude, a smarminess that's not unlikeable but I was always like, "Hey, there's Bradley Cooper with a perm ... there's Bradley Cooper with a beard ... there's Bradley Cooper wearing a cowboy hat ... BC doing this ... BC doing that."  There was none of that here.  He subsumed himself into the role of Chris Kyle, not just physically by beefing up and putting on 40 pounds of muscle, but also by just becoming the man.  The dead eyes.  The lack of emotion in his voice; it was really a great performance.  That being said, it's between Keaton and Redmayne.  I honestly can't predict who will walk onto the podium to collect his golden statuette this year.  Oscar has always had a love affair with showy performances.  You know the kind I mean ... roles which allow a character to really show that they're acting, like playing mentally or physically handicapped people.  Dustin Hoffman in Rain Man.  Daniel Day-Lewis in My Left Foot.  Al Pacino in Scent Of A Woman.  Tom Hanks in Forrest Gump.  Geoffrey Rush in Shine.  Jamie Foxx in Ray.  Colin Firth in The King's Speech.  Get the picture?  But here's the thing ... Redmayne's performance is really the opposite of showy.  In fact, he didn't have any foaming-at-the-mouth "look at me, I'm playing crazy" diatribes or "I'm a blind, stuttering cripple with an IQ of 45" scenes.  His performance was difficult in that his characterization had to get progressively minimal as Hawking's ALS ravaged his body; for the second half of the movie, everything had to be communicated through his eyes.  He never once resorted to overacting, even when his character was beginning to realize he would spend the rest of his life trapped in his own body.  No voices were raised.  A chair was thrown.  That's ... pretty much it.  It was a marvelous performance and I can't say enough about it.

WHO SHOULD WIN:  While Keaton and Cooper were wonderful, I can't deny that I was blown away by what Redmayne accomplished.  You'll notice I haven't really mentioned Cumberbatch or Carell.  Well, Benedict Cumberbatch is embarking on his career as the new Peter O'Toole, and will doubtless be nominated seven or eight more times before he shuffles off his mortal coil.  He was fine as Alan Turing, but there wasn't anything special about his performance to my eyes.  I thought he was much more intriguing as Khan in Star Trek Into Darkness.  As for Carell, he got the Nicole Kidman "I got an Oscar nomination for fucking with my face" treatment, or maybe for not playing Brick Tamland.  Although I'm sure John du Pont probably had thoughts of killing a man with a trident as well.

WHO WAS SCREWED:  David Oyelowo as Martin Luther King in Selma.  Not because he played a Great Person, but because he humanized a man whose humanity has been marginalized over the past fifty years while en route to canonization.  His Dr. King is a man who is noble and driven in his professional life, and tries to be in his personal life, but is not immune to his baser instincts.  On a performance level, I quite enjoyed the way he portrayed Dr. King's everyday voice as being quite distinct from his public speaking timbre.  And of course my boy Ralph Fiennes was hilarious as M. Gustave in The Grand Budapest Hotel - a film which got no acting nominations, but should have gotten Fiennes his third (he is long overdue for one, and I'm not saying that because I'm biased!).  Finally, Andy Serkis.  Yes, Andy Serkis.  It seems like every couple of years I'm extolling his virtual virtues.  Gollum in the Lord Of The Rings movies.  The eponymous King Kong.  Captain Haddock in The Adventures Of Tintin.  Caesar in the two recent Planet Of The Apes movies.  If actors can get nominated for fucking with their face, there's no reason why they can't get nominated for mocap performances.  I dare anyone to watch Dawn Of The Planet Of The Apes and not feel empathy for Caesar.  Why is it that motion capture performances are considered "not real?"  Anyone who knows anything about filmmaking in the modern age (and I'm hopeful that at least some of the Oscar voters do) knows that mocap is just another trick of the trade, the latter-day equivalent of what Lon Chaney Sr. was doing a hundred years ago.  Hell, Fredric March won the Oscar more for his unrecognizable Mr. Hyde rather than Dr. Jekyll in 1931-32.  To keep ignoring an actor of Andy Serkis' talents because of a technicality is ridiculous.  Sadly, he'll probably only get nominated when he's 78 years old playing a real live human.  I'm getting angry.  Let's move on, shall we?

Best Actress
Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night (Sundance Selects).  As Sandra, Marion Cotillard portrays a factory worker who has two days to convince her colleagues to forgo their bonuses so that she can keep her job.
Felicity Jones, The Theory Of Everything (Focus Features).  Felicity Jones portrays Jane Hawking, a young woman whose love for a brilliant scientist helps him to defy the dire prognosis he has received.
Julianne Moore, Still Alice (Sony Pictures Classics).  As Alice Howland, Julianne Moore plays a college professor who learns that she is suffering from early-onset Alzheimer's disease.
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl (20th Century Fox).  Rosamund Pike plays Amy Dunne, a young wife whose disappearance causes suspicion to fall on her husband.
Reese Witherspoon, Wild (Fox Searchlight).  Reese Witherspoon plays Cheryl, a young woman who attempts to reclaim control of her life by undertaking a thousand-mile hike along the Pacific Crest Trail.

COMMENTARY:  Has it really been twelve years since Julianne Moore was last nominated for an Oscar?  It seems like just yesterday when she was a perennial Oscar also-ran.  Boogie Nights in 1997, The End Of The Affair in 1999, a double nominee for Far From Heaven (lead) and The Hours (supporting) in 2002, and then ... an impressive resume (Children Of Men, Blindness, The Kids Are All Right) but as for Oscar nods ... zip.  Zilch.  Nada.  That will all change on February 22nd, when Ms. Moore gets her long-awaited first Oscar for her performance in Still Alice.

WHO I WANT TO WIN:  I've loved Julianne Moore for years, so I will be thrilled to bits to see her win.

WHO WILL WIN:  Former winners Cotillard and Witherspoon and newcomers Jones and Pike don't stand a chance in hell of winning.  It's Julianne Moore's time this year.

WHO SHOULD WIN:  I gotta be honest with you, I've only seen two of the nominated performances, those of Jones and Pike.  Of the two, I would have to go with the latter.  Felicity Jones was a marvel in The Theory Of Everything.  The movie would not have worked without her performance being as precise as it was.  It was heartbreaking to watch her go from believing her and Stephen's love was strong enough to surpass the immense physical barrie between them, to the despondency of realizing that love alone simply wasn't enough.  Her body language is subtle and gradual, and speaks volumes.  But Rosamund Pike.  My God.  I'd seen her in a few things before, most memorably as Miranda Frost in Die Another Day (which, come to think of it, may have helped with preparation for playing Amy Dunne).  There was also Jane Bennet in Pride & Prejudice, which displayed her softer side, but she very much existed below my cinematic radar until this fall.  No more.  At first you empathize with her and, yes, even begin to love her (speaking of which, it was a brilliant move casting Ben Affleck as Nick; he's so good-looking and so good at pulling off the self-satisfaction of someone who knows it) until you realize, holy shit -- she's not who we thought she was!!!  The dramatic arc is incredible ... and she makes the final scene simultaneously inspiring and chilling.  Pike would definitely my pick for best actress this year ... but like I said before, she doesn't stand a chance in hell of winning.


WAS WAS SCREWED:  Angelina Jolie for Maleficent.  She took a character who we previously associated with pure evil, and humanized her.  Her innocence at the beginning of the picture, her rage, shame, and despair when her wings were clipped (an obvious allegory for rape), and her attitude towards Aurora (Elle Fanning) -- first loathing, then begrudging acceptance, and eventually puckish playmate -- I thought it was a great performance.  

Best Supporting Actor
Robert Duvall, The Judge (Warner Bros).  As Joseph Palmer, Robert Duvall plays a self-righteous judge who finds he needs the help of his son, a ruthless defense attorney.
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood (IFC Films).  Ethan Hawke plays a divorced father whose free-spirited lifestyle conflicts with his responsibility to his children.
Edward Norton, Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) (Fox Searchlight).  Edward Norton plays Mike, an egotistical movie star who is cast in a Broadway play opposite a faded actor desperate for a comeback.
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher (Sony Pictures Classics).  Mark Ruffalo portrays David Schultz, an Olympic wrestling champion and a devoted husband and father.
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash (Sony Pictures Classics).  As Fletcher, J.K. Simmons plays a music teacher who motivates his students through fear and humiliation.

COMMENTARY:  Another one of those categories that's pretty much sewn up, this one by first time nominee J.K. Simmons.  The others have all been here before; this is Ruffalo's second nomination, Norton's third, Hawke's fourth -- his second for acting -- and Duvall's seventh (he won best actor for Tender Mercies back in 1983).  Speaking of Duvall, this is his third time being nominated for playing a judge, following his roles as Tom Hagen in The Godfather and Jerome Facher in A Civil Action.  

WHO I WANT TO WIN:  Edward Norton attracted my attention in the mid 1990s with his masterful performance in Primal Fear, followed two years later by American History X, both of which he was nominated for.  He's kept up the pace in the sixteen years since his last nomination, in such diverse films as Fight Club, Death To Smoochy, The 25th Hour, The Illusionist, The Incredible Hulk, and Moonrise Kingdom, but has had nothing to show for it, at least at the Academy Awards.  That's why I'm thrilled he's finally been nominated again.  He displays all the egotism and insecurity of an actor in what surely has to be a semi-autobiographical part in Birdman.  Just as a sidenote, two Bruce Banners are nominated in this same category this year.  Just sayin'.

WHO WILL WIN:  J. Jonah Jameson.  Oh, sorry ... thought we were still doing the comic book thing.  J.K. Simmons will take home the award for his "If J. Jonah Jameson were a music teacher" routine.  No, seriously, it's a really good performance.  Now you could say that Fletcher is really a leading role, and in truth you would have a case.  But this is why the supporting acting categories were created; to honor the character actors who would not usually stand a chance beside all the big stars in the leading categories.  Witness Richard Jenkins' loss to Sean Penn a few years ago.  I would much rather see a Simmons, Jenkins, Patricia Clarkson or Viola Davis get a nomination here for what amounts to a leading role, rather than have people like Tom Cruise or Johnny Depp slum it in a supporting role in an obvious bid to get their elusive first Oscars.  

WHO SHOULD WIN:  You know, all these performances were fine.  Yes, even Ruffalo's, although I hated Foxcatcher.  Hawke displayed a nice progression from being a nice but self-centered dad to a well-adjusted father figure, but it's too subtle for Academy tastes.  Duvall was very good in The Judge, and if there is an upset here (and there won't be, but if there is) the winner would most surely be Duvall.  Why?  He's 84 years old (the oldest male nominee ever, and fifth-oldest acting nominee all-time, behind Gloria Stuart, Emmanuelle Riva, Ruby Dee, and June Squibb).  His chances of picking up another nomination dwindle with each passing year.  He's been around forever and one of the few remaining links to Old Hollywood (hell, he played Boo Radley in To Kill A Mockingbird -- 52 years ago!).  Norton and Simmons I've already mentioned.  None of these nominees would really bug me, but since Simmons is going to win, I guess it really doesn't matter, does it?

WHO WAS SCREWED:  Neil Patrick Harris was really good in Gone Girl; not the kind of role we're accustomed to seeing him in.  And really, wouldn't it be awesome if he had hosted and been nominated in the same year; would have been better than Franco, that's for sure.  And I don't think he's really been on anyone's radar at all this year, but Stephan James (a Canadian, by the way) really impressed me as John Lewis in Selma.  

Best Supporting Actress
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood (IFC Films).  Patricia Arquette portrays a divorced mother struggling to make a life for herself and her two children.
Laura Dern, Wild (Fox Searchlight).  Laura Dern plays Bobbi, a single mother whose love for life becomes an inspiration for her troubled daughter.
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game (The Weinstein Company).  Keira Knightley plays Joan Clarke, a young woman with a talent for ciphers who finds herself part of a top secret group of code breakers during the Second World War.
Emma Stone, Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) (Fox Searchlight).  Emma Stone portrays Sam, the sarcastic daughter of a movie star who mocks him for his efforts to be taken seriously as an actor.
Meryl Streep, Into The Woods (Walt Disney).  Meryl Streep plays the Witch, a powerful sorceress who has placed a curse on a baker's family, yet cares tenderly for the child she once stole and keeps locked in a tower.

COMMENTARY:  This is La Streep's 19th nomination.  I think it's safe to say that at this point she could take a dump off a crane and it would get her some sort of award.  The longest she's gone between nominations since her first nod for The Deer Hunter in 1978?  Five years.  Once.  Between 1990 (Postcards From The Edge) and 1995 (The Bridges Of Madison County).  This is her seventh nomination this century -- and by this century I mean the past fifteen years.  And she's only 65.  Give her another 15-20 years, and she could easily reach 25, perhaps even 30 nominations.  

WHO I WANT TO WIN:  Streep is awesome, though.  I went through a phase about 15 years ago when I was incredibly anti-Streep, but after I realized that was just the natural contrarian in me, I started actually paying attention to her performances.  And dammit, she's really freakin' good!  Sophie's Choice; The Bridges Of Madison County; The Hours.  It's been in the past decade, however that she has really impressed me.  Comedy, drama, musicals -- she can do it all.  I haven't actually seen Into The Woods yet, though, so I can't comment on that.  I actually forgot Laura Dern was nominated at all.  As for the three movies I've seen, I would have to say I'd be cheering for Emma Stone.  She first caught my attention in Superbad and I've liked her ever since.  Birdman was my favorite of the nominees, and Stone had a couple of really good scenes.  Not just the obvious "screaming at my dad" scene which dollars to donuts will be shown on Oscar night, but the low-key ones, like her rooftop meetings with Edward Norton, in which she gets him to open up and drop the facade -- just by being real.

WHO WILL WIN:  Patricia Arquette.   It's a foregone conclusion.  The only name that's been mentioned in close to the same breath as hers is Stone's.  I find it incredibly ironic that the two first-time nominees are front runners in the race while La Streep is pretty much a non-factor.  Pundits are being incredibly sexist and saying that Arquette will get the Oscar basically for allowing herself to age onscreen without going under the knife.  That sort of attitude sickens me.  The Oscar ceremony itself may be plastic and superficial, but Arquette's performance was real and at times painfully raw.  I can't even imagine how difficult it would be to become a character for a couple of weeks, put it out of your mind for a year, and have to reprise the same character a year later.  And do that ten more times!!!  There are no histrionics (with the exception of a mini-meltdown towards the end of the movie); she implies strength and determination without flipping shit, as most good mothers do.

WHO SHOULD WIN:  Hmmmm ... flip a coin.  Arquette, Stone and Knightley were all good.  I haven't really mentioned Miss Keira, but I was actually more impressed with her than I was with Cumberbatch.  Her slyly defiant attitude when at first being barred from writing the test, her joie de vivre as Joan and Turing spend time together, and the devastation in her face at seeing Turing drug-addled and incapacitated for the final time.  I think I'll go with Stone simply because I liked her movie better than the others.

WHO WAS SCREWED:  Carmen Ejogo as Coretta Scott King.  Her scenes confronting MLK regarding his indiscretions were wrenching, and the scene in which she met Malcolm X was very well-played.  It's actually the second time she's played Mrs. King - she was the same character in Boycott (2001, about the bus boycotts following Rosa Parks' arrest).  Another extremely underrated actor, Jeffrey Wright, played Dr. King in that telefilm.  Also, Sienna Miller did a good job as Chris Kyle's long-suffering wife in American Sniper.

We've only done six categories and I'm already running out of time, so since brevity is the soul of wit, and tediousness the limbs and outwards flourishes, let me be brief from hereon in.

Best Original Screenplay

Wes Anderson & Hugo Guinness, The Grand Budapest Hotel (Fox Searchlight).

E Max Frye & Dan Futterman, Foxcatcher (Sony Pictures Classics).

Dan Gilroy, Nightcrawler (Open Road Films).

Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Jr. & Armando Bo, Birdman or

            (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) (Fox Searchlight).

Richard Linklater, Boyhood (IFC Films).

COMMENTARY:  Links to the screenplays of all the nominees are above.  

WHO I WANT TO WIN:  Birdman, obviously.  It had some incredibly hilarious scenes, some witty one-liners, and I quite enjoyed the magical realism of the thing.  Plus, as mentioned before, it was my favorite movie of the bunch.

WHO WILL WIN:  For the longest time, I had kind of assumed this would be a bone tossed to Wes Anderson, but the more I think about it, the more I realize the screenplay isn't the most memorable thing about it.  The performances and visual style are what make Grand Budapest work.  Boyhood's screenplay is a little bit by-the-numbers.  I haven't seen Nightcrawler, but I know it has some hardcore fans out there, so there's a possibility some may vote for it as a kind of fuck-you to the Academy for not giving it anything else.  No, the more I think about it, the more I think Birdman will fly away with the writing award.

WHO SHOULD WIN:  I'm sticking with Birdman, although a quick perusal of the Nightcrawler script makes me really want to check it out.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Paul Thomas Anderson, Inherent Vice (Warner Bros).

Damien Chazelle, Whiplash (Sony Pictures Classics).

Jason Hall, American Sniper (Warner Bros).

Anthony McCarten, The Theory Of Everything (Focus Features).

Graham Moore, The Imitation Game (The Weinstein Company).

COMMENTARY:  Same as the previous category, links to all the screenplays are above.

WHO I WANT TO WIN:  American Sniper was structured really well.  I enjoyed the sarcasm of Alan Turing in Imitation Game.  Whiplash's actual screenplay is really well-written.  Any of these would be fine.

WHO WILL WIN:  More often than not, the writing awards go to best picture nominees, usually as a consolation prize for best picture also-rans.  We have four best picture nominees in this race; the only one not vying for the top prize is Inherent Vice, whose writer (and director), Paul Thomas Anderson, is, ironically, the only one here who has been nominated before.  I think we can count out Theory Of Everything, as there's nothing about its screenplay that is truly memorable.   Whiplash has been drumming up a lot of support (see what I did there?) and could sneak through.  American Sniper is not really known for its screenplay, but it's a definite possibility.  But I think The Imitation Game's quite literal "pay attention or you'll be lost" screenplay will have the upper hand here.  Not only that, like I mentioned before, it would be a bone to be tossed to a film that will most probably not win anything else.

WHO SHOULD WIN:  Gillian Flynn for Gone Girl.  Oh, wait ... she wasn't nominated?  Fuck that shit!!!  What the hell ... American Sniper ... why not?

WHO WAS SCREWED:  See above.

Best Original Score

Alexandre Desplat, The Grand Budapest Hotel (Fox Searchlight).

Alexandre Desplat, The Imitation Game (The Weinstein Company).

Jóhann Jóhannsson, TheTheory Of Everything (Focus Features).

Gary Yershon, Mr Turner (Sony Pictures Classics).

Hans Zimmer, Interstellar (Paramount / Warner Bros).

COMMENTARY:  Desplat's double nomination gives him eight in total, albeit without a win so far, since 2006.  Zimmer's nod is his tenth, since much farther back (Rain Man, 1988).  This is the first nomination for the other two.

WHO I WANT TO WIN:  I'd like to see Desplat win for Grand Budapest; he deserves a win (Zimmer already has an Oscar for The Lion King).  Besides, it's a jaunty, bouncy score that had me bouncing along with it while watching.

WHO WILL WIN:  I have a feeling Desplat may cancel himself out here.  Look for Johannsson to win this, as he's locked up many of the precursors.

WHO SHOULD WIN:   That's a very good question.  They're all really good.  Yershon's stands out because it's a lot moodier than the rest, but I'm going to go with Hans Zimmer for Interstellar.  Listening to some of the tracks, with the modulation of volume and different instrumentations, it's probably my favorite of five really good scores.

Best Original Song
"Everything Is Awesome," The Lego Movie (Warner Bros).  Music & lyrics by Shawn Patterson.  Performed by Tegan & Sara feat. The Lonely Island. 
"Glory," Selma (Paramount).  Music & lyrics by John Stephens & Lonnie Lynn.  Performed by John Legend & Common.  
"Grateful," Beyond The Lights (Relativity Media).  Music & lyrics by Diane Warren.  Performed by Rita Ora.  
"I'm Not Gonna Miss You," Glen Campbell ... I'll Be Me (Area 23a).  Music & lyrics by Glen Campbell & Julian Ryamond.  Performed by Glen Campbell.
"Lost Stars," Begin Again (The Weinstein Company).  Music & lyrics by Craig Alexander & Daniel Brisebois.  Performed by Adam Levine. 

COMMENTARY:  This is famed ballad writer Diane Warren's seventh nomination, and her first in fourteen years.  The former Jerry Bruckheimer go-to ("How Do I Live," "I Don't Want To Miss A Thing," and "There You'll Be," among others) has been silent at the Oscars of late. All the other nominees are first-timers.

WHO I WANT TO WIN:  My favorite some among these is "Glory."  I thought "Grateful" was a really nice ballad as well.  "Lost Stars" is fantastic in the context of the movie, but listening to it without reference, it only really picks up in the last third of the song when Levine lets loose and does his thing.  I know this is heresy, but "Everything Is Awesome" did nothing for me.  It's catchy, yes ... but it's always really damn annoying!  And then there's "I'm Not Gonna Miss You," by Glen Campbell.  Never been a fan; I've preferred cover versions over his own renditions of songs through the years.  But damn it if I wasn't in tears after listening to the song (linked above), knowing that, as I write this, Campbell is in the latter stages of Alzheimer's disease.  So as a song, I would love to see "Glory" win; as a tribute to a man, and because just thinking of it tugs at my heartstrings, I'd have to give my vote to "I'm Not Gonna Miss You."

WHO WILL WIN:  There has been a lot of talk that "Everything Is Awesome" will win out as a way of lending support for a film that many thought was snubbed in the best animated film race.  That could very well happen, but I think this will be a place voters will feel obliged to support "Glory," as a way of defending themselves from accusations of racism.  "I'm Not Gonna Miss You" won a Grammy for Best Country Song, and I'd be thrilled if it won, but its distributor is not a player in Hollywood and I can't see it pushing past "Glory," which is riding both the Paramount publicity machine and collective white guilt.

WHO SHOULD WIN:  "Glory."

Best Cinematography

Roger Deakins, Unbroken (Universal).

Emmanuel Lubezki, Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) (Fox Searchlight).

Dick Pope, Mr Turner (Sony Pictures Classics).

Robert Yeoman, The Grand Budapest Hotel (Fox Searchlight).

Lukasz Zal, Ryszard Lenczewski, Ida (Music Box Films).

COMMENTARY:  This is Deakins' 12th nomination, and seventh in as many years.  He hasn't won yet, and won't this year.  Lubezki finally won on his sixth try last year, for Alfonso Cuaron's Gravity (it was the third Cuaron film he had been nominated for, following A Little Princess and Children Of Men).  Both men were first nominated for two of my favorite films of the 1990s, Deakins for The Shawshank Redemption, and Lubezki for A Little Princess.  Dick Pope has one previous nomination, for The Illusionist, while Yeoman and Zal & Lenczewski are here for the first time.

WHO I WANT TO WIN:  I'd love to see Deakins take home an Oscar; he's definitely due for one.  

WHO WILL WIN:  I'm thinking this award will go to  Yeoman for Grand Budapest.  I loved the way he changed up aspect ratios depending on the era depicted.  As well, he worked well with Anderson to create cotton-candy Kubrick-lite compositions which really worked well for the film.

WHO SHOULD WIN:  I've only seen Grand Budapest and Birdman out of the five nominees.  While I wouldn't be extremely disappointed if Youman took the prize, Lubezki's work was wonderful in that it had to co-ordinate with the editing to maintain a seamless flow.  Not only that, the lighting got more and more ominous as the film went on, but very subtly so.

Best Production Design

The Grand Budapest Hotel (Fox Searchlight).  Adam Stockhausen (art), Anna Pinnock (set).

The Imitation Game (The Weinstein Company).  Maria Djurkovic (art), Tatiana Macdonald (set).

Interstellar (Paramount / Warner Bros).  Nathan Crowley (art), Gary Fettis (set).

Into The Woods (Walt Disney).  Dennis Gassner (art), Anna Pinnock (set).

Mr Turner, (Sony Pictures Classics).  Suzie Davies (art), Charlotte Watts (set).

COMMENTARY:  If Grand Budapest Hotel doesn't run away with this award, I'll eat my shorts.

WHO I WANT TO WIN:  See above.

WHO WILL WIN:  See above.

WHO SHOULD WIN:  See above.

Best Costume Design

Colleen Atwood, Into The Woods (Walt Disney).

Mark Bridges, Inherent Vice (Warner Bros).

Milena Canonero, The Grand Budapest Hotel (Fox Searchlight).

Jacqueline Durran, Mr Turner (Sony Pictures Classics).

Anna B Sheppard, Maleficent (Walt Disney).

COMMENTARY:  Most of these people are old hands at the Oscars.  Atwood has been nominated ten times before, winning thrice (for Chicago, Memoirs Of A Geisha, and Alice In Wonderland).  Her first nomination was for one of my favorite films of the 1990s, Gillian Armstrong's Little Women.  Milena Canonero is likewise a three-time winner (for Barry Lyndon, Chariots Of Fire, and Marie Antoinette).  Grand Budapest marks her ninth nod.  This is Durran's fourth go-around at the Oscar; she previously won two years ago for Anna Karenina.  This is Sheppard's third nomination, and her first for a movie that doesn't involve the Holocaust (her prior nods were for Schindler's List and The Pianist).  Bridges won on his only previous nomination for The Artist (and you can't get much different from the stylish black-and white offerings of The Artist than the cornucopia of 1970s color that is Inherent Vice).

WHO I WANT TO WIN:  You know what, I would like to see Sheppard grab her first Oscar.  Everyone else has already got one, and quite frankly I think the costuming was an important part of helping to develop Maleficent's character.  Throw in the colorful fairies and Aurora's gowns and, yeah, sure ... why not?

WHO WILL WIN:  Toss a coin.  Even though the costumes really didn't jump out at me like they did for Maleficent or even Into The Woods, Canonero has one thing going for her, and that's the fact that Grand Budapest is the only best picture nominee out of the bunch.  In fact, I could see Anderson's film pulling off the visual trifecta of cinematography, production design, and costume design.  It used to happen quite often (The English Patient, Titanic, The Aviator and Memoirs Of A Geisha), but not so much recently.  I think the only thing that will stop Grand Budapest from cleaning up the visual awards is if Birdman wins for cinematography.

WHO SHOULD WIN:  Maleficent.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Bill Corso, Dennis Liddiard, Foxcatcher (Sony Pictures Classics).

Frances Hannon, Mark Coulier,The Grand Budapest Hotel (Fox Searchlight).

Elizabeth Yianni-Georgiou, David White, Guardians Of The Galaxy (Walt Disney).

COMMENTARY:  If one of the films in this category has been nominated for best picture, this award often goes to it as a sort of coat-tail nomination, irregardless of whether it actually has the best makeup job.  Think Dallas Buyers Club knocking off The Lone Ranger and Bad Grandpa last year, Les Miserables beating out The Hobbit and Hitchcock two years ago, Benjamin Button winning over The Dark Knight and Hellboy II in 2008.  In fact, you have to go back 17 years to 1997, when Men In Black triumphed over Titanic, to find a non-best picture nominee beating a best picture nominee in this category.  It's really sad, because there are some really great makeup jobs that have lost over the years due to the big ol' Hollywood bandwagon.  I don't think that will happen this time though.  Just as in 1997, I think Guardians Of The Galaxy's alien life forms are too unique and diverse to be able to lose this one.  Not only that, it was very well received and loved, so that gives it another push in the direction of the podium.  Don't get me wrong, I thought Tilda Swinton was barely recognizable as the old lady in Grand Budapest, but aside from Saoirse Ronan's birthmark, that was pretty much it.  Guardians Of The Galaxy was ALL makeup, and therefore it should win this category hands down.

Best Visual Effects

Captain America: The Winter Soldier (Walt Disney).  Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Bryan Grill,

            Dan Sudick.

Dawn Of The Planet Of The Apes (20^th Century Fox).  Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, Daniel Barrett, Erik Winquist.

Guardians Of The Galaxy (Walt Disney).  Stephane Ceretti, Nicolas Aithadi, Jonathan Fawkner, Paul Corbould.

Interstellar (Paramount / Warner Bros).  Paul Franklin, Andrew Lockley, Ian Hunter, Scott Fisher.

X-Men: Days Of Future Past (20^th Century Fox).  Richard Stammers, Lou Pecora, Tim Crosbie, Cameron Waldbauer.

COMMENTARY:  While this could feasibly be one of the bones the Academy tosses at Interstellar (which tied with Foxcatcher for the most nominations without a best picture nod, with five), it doesn't seem like Interstellar was truly loved, so I think it's less likely to get anything than people might imagine.  I'm going to put my money on Dawn Of The Planet Of The Apes here.  I want it to win, I think it will win, and it should win.  Moving on ...

Best Sound Editing

American Sniper (Warner Bros).  Alan Robert Murray, Bub Asman.

Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) (Fox Searchlight).  Martin Hernández, Aaron Glascock.

The Hobbit: The Battle Of The Five Armies (New Line / MGM / Warner Bros).  Brent Burge, Jason Canovas.

Interstellar (Paramount / Warner Bros).  Richard King.

Unbroken (Universal).  Becky Sullivan, Andrew DeCristofaro.

COMMENTARY:  It used to be this category had three slots for nominees; that all changed in 2006 when it expanded to five.  That being said, I think this is a two-horse race between American Sniper and Interstellar.  The latter has three-time winner Richard King as its sound editor, so it shouldn't be counted out, but the two men who worked on Sniper have seven and five nominations apiece, as well as a win for Eastwood's Letters From Iwo Jima, so they're no slouches.  Therefore I reiterate my comments above about the Academy's lackluster reaction to Interstellar, and thusly predict this and the sound mixing award will go to American Sniper.

Best Sound Mixing

American Sniper (Warner Bros).  John Reitz, Gregg Rudloff, Walt Martin.

Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) (Fox Searchlight).  Jon Taylor, Frank A

            Montaño, Thomas Varga.

Interstellar (Paramount / Warner Bros).  Gary A Rizzo, Gregg Landaker, Mark Weingarten.

Unbroken (Universal).  Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño, David Lee.

Whiplash (Sony Pictures Classics).  Craig Mann, Ben Wilkins, Thomas Curley.

COMMENTARY:  The two sound awards quite often go hand-in-hand, so I'm predicting American Sniper to triumph here as well.

Best Film Editing

Sandra Adair, Boyhood (IFC Films).

Joel Cox, Gary D Roach, American Sniper (Warner Bros).

Tom Cross, Whiplash (Sony Pictures Classics).

William Goldenberg, The Imitation Game (The Weinstein Company).

Barney Pilling, The Grand Budapest Hotel (Fox Searchlight).

COMMENTARY:  For reasons unknown to mankind, Stephen Mirrione's work on Birdman, seamless cutting together different shots to make it seem as if it were all one take, was not recognized here.  That's okay, though, because Sandra Adair deserves an Oscar for pulling together twelve years of footage.  That has to have been an immense challenge.  And it's not like you can insert a random shot to make things flow better; most movies are filmed over the course of a few months, not a whole decade.  She took what amounted to twelve short films and edited them together to make one longer one.  She deserves the Oscar in this category, and will get it.

Best Animated Feature

Big Hero 6 (Walt Disney).  Don Hall, Chris Williams, directors.  Fourteen-year-old science prodigy Hiro (Ryan Potter) spends his time developing fighting robots for underground competitions until his older brother introduces him to an eccentric group of young inventors. When the talented misfits band together to fight a dangerous villain, they gain an unlikely ally: a gentle healthcare bot named Baymax (Scott Adsit).

The Boxtrolls (Focus Features).  Graham Annable, Anthony Stacchi, directors.  In the city of Cheesebridge, a community of shy trolls lives in hiding, emerging only at night to scavenge anything the humans have left outdoors. When they take a human baby and raise him as one of their own, his disappearance gives ammunition to the sinister Archibald Snatcher (Ben Kingsley), who plans to advance his position in the town by eradicating the trolls.

How To Train Your Dragon 2 (20^th Century Fox).  Dean DeBlois, director.  Viking dragon tamer Hiccup (Jay Baruchel) is now a young man, but he retains his longing for new experiences and his bond with his beloved dragon, Toothless. After Hiccup and his girlfriend Astrid (America Ferrera) uncover a hidden dragon paradise and the secret behind a family tragedy, all the Vikings must band together to protect the dragons against ruthless hunter Drago (Djimon Hounsou).

Song Of The Sea (GKIDS).  Tomm Moore, director.  Saoirse and Ben live with their father (Brendan Gleeson), a lighthouse keeper, on a small island. Ben, who blames his sister for their mother's death, is unaware that Saoirse, like their mother, is a mythical sea creature known as a Selkie and is now the last of her kind.

The Tale Of The Princess Kaguya (GKIDS).  Isao Takahata, director.  When a bamboo cutter named Okina (James Caan) finds a miniature infant inside a cane stalk, he brings her home to his wife, Ona (Mary Steenburgen), and she grows immediately to the size of a human baby. Called Princess by her adoptive parents, the magical child (Chloe Grace Moretz) leads an idyllic life until her father finds riches hidden in the forest that he believes are her celestial dowry.

COMMENTARY:  I haven't seen any of these films (hangs head in shame), but if I were to predict a winner, I'd go with How To Train Your Dragon 2.  I would really like to see The Tale Of The Princess Kaguya at some point.  It looks really good.

Best Foreign Language Film

Ida, Music Box Films (Poland).  Pawel Pawlikowski, director.  A young woman preparing to become a nun (Agata Trzebuchowska) is sent from her convent home into the secular world to spend several days with her only relative. The trip will bring Anna into contact with experiences outside her sheltered world, and will lead her to knowledge that may shake her sense of her own identity.

Leviathan, Sony Pictures Classics (Russia).  Andrey Zvyagintsev, director.  On the Kola Peninsula, Kolya (Aleksey Serebryakov)and his family find themselves facing the loss of their house and land when the corrupt mayor of their small town lays claim to it through eminent domain. Determined to regain control of his home, Kolya enlists an old friend from Moscow, a lawyer who has his own agenda.

Tangerines, Allfilm (Estonia).  Zaza Urushadze, director.  As the Soviet Union collapses, the conflict nears a community of ethnic Estonians living in Georgia, many of whom flee in terror. Remaining behind, however, is a carpenter named Ivo (Lembit Ulfsak), who decides to help his neighbor harvest his tangerine crop before the fighting reaches them.

Timbuktu, Cohen Media Group (Mauretania).  Abderrahmane Sissako, director.  As jihadists arrive in northern Mali in 2012, the peaceful lives of the local inhabitants are shattered by the intolerance and religious demands of the invaders. For cattle farmer Kidane (Ibrahim Ahmed) and his wife Satima (Toulou Kiki), the presence of the new regime means choosing between remaining in their home or following their neighbors into exile.

Wild Tales, Sony Pictures Classics (Argentina).  Damián Szifron, director.  Six tales of revenge play out in a series of unrelated stories that take their characters' already heightened emotions to outrageous extremes. Murder, violence, betrayal and unchecked rage mark the actions of a wide variety of individuals as they respond to situations that bring out the worst in them.

COMMENTARY:  These all look really good!!!  Usually there are a couple of foreign film nominees about whom you wonder ... but all these look good.  I haven't seen any of them, but if I had to say who I want to win, I would say Tangerines - the trailer spoke to me the most.  On a side note, Estonia and Mauretania got their first Oscar nominations this year, so congrats to them.  Now to predict a winner.  Even though Ida has been nominated in one of the main categories (which usually is a good predictor of who will actually win), all I keep hearing about is Leviathan.  So I will go with that one instead.

Best Documentary Feature

CitizenFour:  In 2013, computer analyst Edward Snowden leaked classified documents he had obtained from the National Security Agency detailing the extent of government surveillance of U.S. citizens. After going into hiding to avoid extradition and arrest, Snowden himself became a news story that threatened to eclipse the implications of the information he had revealed.

Finding Vivian Maier:  Throughout her life, photographer Vivian Maier worked as a nanny and kept her photographs hidden from the world. After acquiring thousands of her negatives in an auction, John Maloof set out to discover more about the enigmatic woman whose affinity for outsiders and the disenfranchised is reflected in her work.

Last Days In Vietnam:  As the Vietnam War drew to a close, the U.S. government's refusal to acknowledge or plan for the approaching final days led to chaos in the last hours of Saigon's fall. As U.S. personnel and members of the South Vietnamese army were hurriedly evacuated, South Vietnamese citizens who had aided the losing side learned that they would be left behind.

The Salt Of The Earth:  Brazilian photographer Sebastião Salgado has traveled the world creating images of great visual beauty from captured moments of human hardship and suffering. Often working in conjunction with Doctors Without Borders, Salgado has turned his lens on many of the modern world's most desperate and forgotten inhabitants.

Virunga:  In eastern Congo, the World Heritage site Virunga National Park serves as the home and ostensible refuge for groups of endangered mountain gorillas. But years of civil war, poachers, tremendous instability in the region and the discovery of oil beneath the park have combined to threaten both the gorillas and the dedicated wildlife conservationists who fight to protect them.

COMMENTARY: Again, all of these look interesting to me.  If I were voting, I would probably go with Finding Vivian Maier – it seems to be a fascinating snapshot of a working-class woman with hidden artistic talents.  How will the Academy vote?  Well, I think the Snowden documentary is still a little too controversial and hot-topic for the notoriously staid Oscar voters, and the two films whose subject is photographers may very easily cancel each other out.  Which leaves two films:  Last Days In Vietnam and Virunga.  The latter is a topic that’s near and dear to many Oscar voters’ hearts – the protection of nature and the evil of corporate greed.  The former also deals with issues that interest the Academy (especially older voters): United States history, the criticism thereof, and the righting of past wrongs.  It doesn’t focus on a recent hot-topic issue like CitizenFour, so it’s less of a political lightning rod in that regard; plus, its director is none other than Rory Kennedy (yes, of THOSE Kennedys), whose family is still held in high regard by liberal types in Hollywood.  Wouldn’t it be nice to pay tribute to the family by honoring one of its descendants with an Oscar?  The Academy will surely think so.

Best Documentary Short Subject

Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1:  Each month, the Veterans Crisis Line receives over 22,000 calls from military veterans, who account for 20% of all suicides in the U.S. each year.

Joanna:  As she faces a terminal illness, the mother of a young son writes a blog in which she tries to leave a record of what she hopes to teach him.

Our Curse:  A mother and father face the difficulties of caring for a baby who has been born with a life-threatening congenital breathing disorder known as Ondine's curse.

The Reaper (La Parka):  For the past 25 years, Efrain has worked in a slaughterhouse, where he has developed an intimate relationship with both death and what one must sometimes do to live.

White Earth:  Three children and an immigrant mother face a long and difficult winter in North Dakota, which has attracted many people seeking work during an oil boom.

COMMENTARY: Not sure what will win out here; I’m thinking Crisis Hotline, because it may be something the Academy would like attention drawn to ... but I’m not sure.  They could possible give it to Our Curse, as the mother and father in the description are also the filmmakers.  My choice would either be Joanna or The Reaper ... the former for its emotional impact, and the latter for its philosophical musings.  But I think Crisis Hotline will get recognized here.

Best Short Film (Animated)

The Bigger Picture:   Tensions arise between two brothers as their elderly mother requires more care.

The Dam Keeper:  A lonely little pig in charge of maintaining the town dam is cruelly bullied by his classmates.

Feast:  The story of the relationship between a young man and the stray puppy he takes in is told through the food the dog receives.

Me And My Moulton:  Three sisters growing up in an unconventional Norwegian family ask their parents for a bicycle.

A Single Life:  A mysterious vinyl single gives a young woman the power to move back and forth through the years of her life.

COMMENTARY: The one that appeals to me here is Feast.  Not only is it about a cute puppy dog, it’s also by Disney, which gives it a leg up on its competition.  Its only other real competition I think would be Me And My Moulton – not that it looks that great, but its director has been nominated twice before and won in 2006 for The Danish Poet.  The Dam Keeper looks interesting as well, but I think the Disney short will be the one to partake of the Oscar feast.

Best Short Film (Live Action)

Aya:  A young woman waiting at an airport has an unexpected encounter with an arriving passenger.

Boogaloo And Graham:  Jamesy and Malachy are presented with two baby chicks to raise by their soft-hearted father.

Butter Lamp (La Lampe Au Beurre De Yak):  A photographer and his assistant photograph the inhabitants of a remote Tibetan village.

Parvaneh:  An Afghan teenager living in a refugee center in Switzerland encounters difficulties wiring money to her family and asks a young Swiss woman for help.

The Phone Call:  A woman working for a crisis center phone line receives a call from a suicidal older man.

COMMENTARY: None of these really jump out at me, so I’m going to say that the Academy will lean towards the only short in this bunch with any kind of name recognition – that is, The Phone Call, which stars Sally Hawkins, Jim Broadbent and Prunella Scales.  Boogaloo looks cute, and Parvaneh has the “cultures trying to understand each other” thing going on, but my 25 cents is on The Phone Call.  

So there you have it:  my Oscar predictions for this year.  Let's run them down once again:

 Boyhood  - 4 wins predicted (picture, director, supporting actress and editing)

The Grand Budapest Hotel - 3 wins predicted (cinematography, production design and costume design)

American Sniper  - 2 wins predicted (sound editing, sound mixing)

The Theory Of Everything - 2 wins predicted (actor, original score)

Birdman - 1 win predicted (original screenplay)

Dawn Of The Planet Of The Apes - 1 win predicted (visual effects)

Guardians Of The Galaxy - 1 win predicted (makeup & hairstyling)

The Imitation Game - 1 win predicted (adapted screenplay)

Selma - 1 win predicted (original song)

Still Alice - 1 win predicted (actress)

Whiplash - 1 win predicted (supporting actor)

I have predicted all the best picture nominees to get at least one award.  One last thing: if my favorite, Birdman, happens to start picking up a bunch of the technical awards, get ready for it to possibly upset Boyhood in the best picture category.  Enjoy the Oscars!!!