Well, it seems I didn't have nearly the amount of time I thought I had, so my goal of an in-depth analysis of all the Oscar nominees has to fall by the wayside in favor of more pressing real life events. In a way it's a good thing, as I've only seen five of the nine best picture nominees -- I have been holding back my writing in order to hopefully get a chance to see more but, alas, 'twas not to be. So without further ado, a quick rundown of the rest of my picks -- who I think will win, and who I want to win.
BEST PICTURE
12 Years A Slave. I know Gravity and American Hustle have a lot of heat, but 12 Years just screams out "OSCAR!!!" any which way you look at it. It's a period piece history lesson that Oscar always seems to latch on to. Now as mentioned previously, I've only seen five of the nominees: American Hustle, Captain Phillips, Gravity, Her, and The Wolf Of Wall Street. My favorite of all of these was Wolf, but it doesn't stand a chance in hell of winning. No, this one is going to 12 Years -- although I think this is one of those years where picture and director will split the vote (which seems to be happening more and more often these days). Because ...
BEST DIRECTOR
Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity. Usually picture and director are one and the same. This year, though, Cuarón's work on the project has been so universally recognized for his technological aptitude that I can't see anyone else getting this prize for. If there's a category for Safest Oscar Prediction this year, this is it.
BEST ACTOR
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club. I love Leo. He's always been a terribly underrated performer, and even though he already has a not-too-shabby four nominations, he could easily have twice that in my opinion. He would be getting my vote for best actor, just for the Quaaludes scene alone! Now I haven't seen McConaughey's film, and apparently he's fantastic. So fantastic that he's another pretty much sure thing. Some people are mentioning Bruce Dern as a kind of career award, but I've noticed that people who get career awards most often get them in the supporting categories (unless you're Paul Newman). Can't see that happening here. McConaughey will start the Dallas Oscars Club right here.
BEST ACTRESS
Amy Adams, American Hustle. This one seemed at one point to be heading Cate Blanchett's way, but her buzz seems to have cooled off a bit. That being said, I think hers is a fantastic performance. I would not be disappointed if she won it. Streep and Dench are pretty much bystanders in this race, and I can picture Bullock winning out only if Gravity pulls a Titanic and sweeps pretty much everything it's nominated for. I'm going out on a limb here, but I'm going to predict Amy Adams to win for American Hustle. It's not her best performance ever, or even this year (her role in Her was phenomenal in its understatedness), but this is her fifth nomination in nine years (and her first leading actress nod). What's impressive is that none of the other nominated performances (for Junebug, Doubt, The Fighter and The Master) are similar -- no going back into her bag of tricks. And when you throw in stuff like Enchanted, let's face it, the girl has range and talent up the wazoo. So yes, I'm predicting Amy Adams to win best actress this year.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club. Just going to go on record here: Michael Fassbender is AWESOME!!! That being said, I have still not seen 12 Years A Slave, so I can't comment on his performance. But if he won, I would do a jig. Just saying. As for the race itself, Leto will join McConaughey in the Dallas Oscars Club. Actually, since supporting awards are always rattled off before the leads, perhaps it should be the other way around. Either way, both men are walking out of the venue with little gold men in their pockets.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Lupito Nyong'o, 12 Years A Slave. I know, I know. Everybody's talking about Jennifer Lawrence doing the back-to-back thing. She's a great actress, and I'd love to see her get up on stage and start babbling because quite frankly, she's one of the coolest and most refreshing people Hollywood has at the moment. But this award is always one of the big shockers of the evening. I think it's because it's almost always the first award given, and because the Oscars start after 8:30 and don't finish until 'round midnight, a little bit of glamour and/or controversy to start the show always helps. So often this award is given to someone who, in a bit of an upset, comes out of nowhere to win. 1992: Marisa Tomei (My Cousin Vinny) beats out Judy Davis, Joan Plowright, Vanessa Redgrave AND Miranda Richardson. 1996: Juliette Binoche (The English Patient) beats out huge favorite Lauren Bacall. 2000: Marcia Gay Harden (Pollock) beats out Judi Dench and Frances McDormand. Then there are the ones who are pretty much new to acting: Anna Paquin, Jennifer Hudson, Octavia Spencer. What I'm leading to is that Lupita Nyong'o is going to win here, Lawrence and all her awesomeness be damned.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Spike Jonze, Her. Oscar loves spreading the wealth lately, and this is pretty much the only shot Her has at winning. Plus, you have to admit, it's original! (screenplay attached in link)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
John Ridley, 12 Years A Slave. Speaking of spreading the wealth, there are three other best picture nominees in this category. None of which will win. Next.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Steven Price, Gravity. See comments from February 1st for in-depth analysis.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"Ordinary Love" from Mandela: Long Walk To Freedom. I know, here I am singing "Let It Go" in my sleep and still I pick this one. Same as best score, see February 1st comments for more.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Emmanuel Lubezki, Gravity. Once you realize what Lubezki and Cuarón achieved, you'll understand why this is a no-brainer. Roger Deakins will have to wait for his 12th nomination for another shot at winning.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Catherine Martin (art direction) & Beverley Dunn (set decoration), The Great Gatsby. Say what you will about the much-maligned Gatsby, it was certainly a feast for the eyes. You could see 12 Years A Slave get the Lincoln-ish "didn't see that one coming" toss-off here, but I'm pretty sure this award will go to Jimmy Gatz.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Catherine Martin, The Great Gatsby. Ditto.
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Adruitha Lee & Robin Mathews, Dallas Buyers Club. This one SHOULD go to Stephen Prouty for Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa, but this is another category in which if there's a best picture nominee, it WILL go to that film, regardless of whether or not it should.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Tim Webber, Chris Lawrence, David Shirk & Neil Corbould, Gravity. Smaug is fantastic, but this is Gravity's year in all the technical categories, so for the next few categories, you will indulge me, please, if I am a bit brief ...
BEST SOUND EDITING
Glenn Freemantle, Gravity.
BEST SOUND MIXING
Skip Lievsay, Niv Adiri, Christopher Benstead & Chris Munro, Gravity. I actually thought Captain Phillips' sound mix was really good, and if it wins ANY awards, it will be one of the sound ones. But it won't.
BEST FILM EDITING
Alfonso Cuarón & Mark Sanger, Gravity.
So there you have it. All the other awards: animated feature, foreign language film, and all the documentaries and short films, I've already written about. But let's tally up the results for my predictions.
Gravity -- 7 awards (out of 10 nominations)
12 Years A Slave -- 3 awards (out of 9 nominations)
Dallas Buyers Club -- 3 awards (out of 6 nominations)
The Great Gatsby -- 2 awards (out of 2 nominations)
American Hustle -- 1 award (out of 10 nominations)
Her -- 1 award (out of 5 nominations)
Mandela: Long Walk To Freedom -- 1 award (out of 1 nomination)
Captain Phillips and Nebraska (6 nominations each), The Wolf Of Wall Street (5 nominations) and Philomena (4 nominations) will all go home empty-handed.
Enjoy the Oscars, everybody!
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